Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 13:39 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.590 | -0.180 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-20 11:44 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.590 | -0.170 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-20 11:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.344 | 0.646 | -0.302 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-20 11:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.344 | 0.647 | -0.303 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 11:01 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.590 | -0.170 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-20 10:16 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.344 | 0.647 | -0.303 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-20 09:57 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.344 | 0.643 | -0.299 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 09:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.344 | 0.645 | -0.301 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-20 09:18 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.344 | 0.645 | -0.301 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 09:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.344 | 0.645 | -0.301 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 08:43 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.645 | -0.304 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 08:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.645 | -0.305 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 08:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.645 | -0.305 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 08:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.645 | -0.305 | $31 | — |
| 2026-05-20 08:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.646 | -0.306 | $9 | — |
| 2026-05-20 07:52 | 0xc02147de… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.280 | 0.250 | +0.030 | $53 | 4m |
| 2026-05-20 07:42 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.319 | 0.647 | -0.328 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 07:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.647 | -0.329 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.634 | -0.316 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-20 06:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.634 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 05:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.635 | -0.317 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 05:44 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.634 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-20 05:42 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.313 | 0.634 | -0.321 | $22 | — |
| 2026-05-20 05:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.313 | 0.634 | -0.321 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 05:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.313 | 0.635 | -0.322 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 05:06 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.313 | 0.636 | -0.323 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-20 03:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.312 | 0.640 | -0.328 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-20 03:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.312 | 0.640 | -0.328 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.313 | 0.640 | -0.327 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.313 | 0.640 | -0.327 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 02:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.634 | -0.329 | $3 | — |