Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 06:47 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.173 | -0.053 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-23 06:19 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.180 | 0.280 | -0.100 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-23 06:10 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.163 | -0.043 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-23 05:11 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.160 | -0.040 | $17 | 1m |
| 2026-06-23 05:10 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.160 | -0.040 | $20 | 1m |
| 2026-06-23 05:09 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.160 | -0.040 | $20 | 1m |
| 2026-06-23 04:55 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.159 | -0.039 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-06-23 04:55 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.160 | -0.040 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-06-22 22:53 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.182 | -0.042 | $7 | 62m |
| 2026-06-22 21:52 | 0x5a218c7a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.370 | -0.040 | $31 | 22m |
| 2026-06-22 21:25 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.186 | -0.046 | $1 | 153m |
| 2026-06-22 18:47 | 0xa6dcc89a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.390 | -0.040 | $7 | 2m |
| 2026-06-22 18:02 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.390 | -0.060 | $60 | 248m |
| 2026-06-22 18:01 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.390 | -0.060 | $72 | 248m |
| 2026-06-22 17:50 | 0xc798197a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.390 | -0.070 | $37 | 278m |
| 2026-06-22 17:18 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.190 | -0.050 | $1 | 393m |
| 2026-06-22 15:39 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.189 | -0.049 | $1 | 494m |
| 2026-06-22 14:44 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.184 | -0.044 | $2 | 547m |
| 2026-06-22 13:25 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.186 | -0.046 | $2 | 633m |
| 2026-06-22 13:05 | 0x9f66aa95… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.410 | -0.050 | $53 | 241m |
| 2026-06-22 13:04 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.186 | -0.046 | $50 | 654m |
| 2026-06-22 12:59 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.400 | -0.030 | $37 | 251m |
| 2026-06-22 12:51 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.420 | -0.050 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-22 12:50 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.420 | -0.050 | $37 | 1m |
| 2026-06-22 12:44 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.430 | +0.210 | $1 | 591m |
| 2026-06-22 12:44 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.430 | +0.210 | $1 | 591m |
| 2026-06-22 12:44 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.430 | +0.210 | $1 | 591m |
| 2026-06-22 12:44 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.430 | +0.210 | $1 | 591m |
| 2026-06-22 12:41 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.186 | -0.046 | $5 | 674m |
| 2026-06-22 12:34 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.440 | +0.200 | $1 | 601m |
| 2026-06-22 12:34 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.440 | +0.200 | $1 | 601m |
| 2026-06-22 12:34 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.440 | +0.200 | $1 | 601m |
| 2026-06-22 12:28 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.440 | -0.080 | $6 | 272m |
| 2026-06-22 12:24 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.440 | +0.210 | $1 | 601m |
| 2026-06-22 12:24 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.440 | +0.210 | $1 | 601m |
| 2026-06-22 12:24 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.440 | +0.210 | $1 | 601m |
| 2026-06-22 12:14 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.440 | +0.210 | $1 | 612m |
| 2026-06-22 12:10 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.440 | -0.080 | $6 | 293m |
| 2026-06-22 11:54 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.450 | +0.220 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:54 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.450 | +0.220 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:54 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.450 | +0.220 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:54 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.450 | +0.220 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.450 | +0.190 | $19 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:53 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.450 | +0.190 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:53 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.450 | +0.190 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:53 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.450 | +0.190 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:52 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.450 | +0.190 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-22 11:52 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.450 | +0.190 | $264 | 613m |
| 2026-06-22 11:52 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.450 | -0.090 | $6 | 303m |
| 2026-06-22 11:44 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.450 | +0.220 | $1 | 623m |