Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 14:07 | 0xe23b2940… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VZELUKR
zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-07 13:51 | 0xf0d5eb1c… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.500 | -0.100 | $53 | — |
| 2026-08-07 13:29 | 0xf0d5eb1c… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.500 | -0.100 | $8 | — |
| 2026-08-07 13:26 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.140 | -0.050 | $13 | — |
| 2026-08-07 13:25 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.140 | -0.050 | $3 | — |
| 2026-08-07 12:46 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.141 | -0.051 | $16 | — |
| 2026-08-07 12:46 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.141 | -0.051 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-07 12:45 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.141 | -0.051 | $17 | — |
| 2026-08-07 11:53 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01
will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by-december-31-2026-573-343-622 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.050 | 0.100 | -0.050 | $1 | 0m |
| 2026-08-07 11:46 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.141 | -0.051 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-07 08:09 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.580 | +0.030 | $12 | — |
| 2026-08-07 07:37 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-07 07:36 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $3 | — |
| 2026-08-07 07:36 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-07 07:35 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $13 | — |
| 2026-08-07 07:34 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $17 | — |
| 2026-08-07 07:09 | 0x8c0b637b… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.500 | -0.080 | $84 | — |
| 2026-08-07 07:09 | 0x6139c42e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.500 | -0.080 | $1050 | — |
| 2026-08-07 07:09 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.500 | -0.080 | $259 | — |
| 2026-08-07 05:38 | 0x7e5972bf… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $228 | — |
| 2026-08-07 04:43 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXARREST-27JAN-AFAU
will-anthony-fauci-be-arrested-before-2027-464 Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? |
SELL | 0.131 | 0.210 | -0.079 | $26 | — |
| 2026-08-07 03:57 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.450 | -0.030 | $4 | 0m |
| 2026-08-07 03:20 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-no-change-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724869 Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.560 | -0.060 | $20 | — | |
| 2026-08-07 02:58 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-07 02:50 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $63 | — |
| 2026-08-07 02:43 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $11 | — |
| 2026-08-07 02:22 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-07 02:21 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.119 | -0.039 | $76 | — |
| 2026-08-07 02:20 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.119 | -0.039 | $76 | — |
| 2026-08-07 01:32 | 0xf50543a8… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.780 | 0.810 | -0.030 | $154 | 0m |
| 2026-08-07 01:31 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-07 01:14 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $19 | — |
| 2026-08-07 00:40 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $545 | — |
| 2026-08-07 00:34 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.119 | -0.039 | $31 | — |
| 2026-08-07 00:08 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $25 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:57 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.114 | -0.034 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:57 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $22 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:57 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:56 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $6 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:55 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $33 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:55 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $8 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:54 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $9 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:54 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $9 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:53 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:53 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $76 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:10 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.117 | -0.037 | $8 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:10 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.117 | -0.037 | $15 | — |
| 2026-08-06 23:08 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.117 | -0.037 | $41 | — |
| 2026-08-06 21:42 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.500 | -0.090 | $82 | — |
| 2026-08-06 21:22 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $1399 | — |