Lag Analysis

Per-market catchup speed and reliability. Score = close rate × speed factor (120 min baseline) — higher is better. Needs ≥ 5 resolved trades to score. Green = fast, predictable lead-lag. Red = structural divergence or slow/unreliable.

Markets Scored
51
Best Score
1.000
Fastest Avg Lag
0m
Total Markets
73
Market Signals Trades Close Rate Avg Lag Min / Max Lag Win Rate Avg P&L Total P&L Score Last Signal
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOWGLOBAL-26JUL20-IWI
Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top global Net
resolves 2026-07-21
19 19↑ 100% (19/19) 13m 0m / 1h52m 89% $+9.18 $+174.50 1.000 2026-07-20 20:39
KXTRUMPBIBIMEET-26AUG01-JUL21
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 19, 2026?
resolves 2026-07-19
14 12↑ 100% (12/12) 45m 1m / 2h26m 0% $-32.67 $-392.00 1.000 2026-07-16 01:55
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
112 100↑ 100% (100/100) 1h 2m 1m / 1d 100% $+1.17 $+117.20 1.000 2026-07-15 08:40
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN27
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
resolves 2026-06-26
314 275↑ 100% (275/275) 1h 10m 1m / 6h33m 61% $-1.60 $-441.25 1.000 2026-06-26 05:44
KXTOPSONG-26AUG08-CHO
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 10
resolves 2026-08-04
10 10↑ 100% (10/10) 1h 25m 13m / 6h30m 10% $-6.30 $-63.00 1.000 2026-07-27 02:19
KXTOPALBUMSPOTIFY-26-BTS
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
15 15↑ 100% (15/15) 2h 56m 0m / 5h19m 100% $+4.72 $+70.75 0.682 2026-08-05 11:42
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 1
resolves 2026-06-18
550 316↑ 100% (316/316) 3h 38m 1m / 18h32m 43% $-3.28 $-1036.50 0.550 2026-06-18 04:30
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the Sep
resolves 2026-09-18
24 20↑ 3✕ 1○ 87% (20/23) 3h 28m 0m / 11h57m 100% $+3.95 $+79.00 0.502 2026-08-07 05:38
KXCBDECISIONRUSSIA-26JUL24-HOLD
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after
resolves 2026-07-24
31 27↑ 100% (27/27) 4h 40m 0m / 1d 48% $-0.89 $-24.00 0.429 2026-07-24 03:21
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
resolves 2026-07-01
1109 910↑ 100% (910/910) 4h 44m 1m / 1d 59% $+0.57 $+521.38 0.423 2026-06-30 16:40
KXTRUMPBIBIMEET-26AUG01-AUG01
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
resolves 2026-07-31
74 73↑ 1✕ 99% (73/74) 5h 1m 0m / 18h21m 85% $+5.96 $+435.25 0.393 2026-07-26 08:16
KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
resolves 2026-12-31
11 11↑ 100% (11/11) 5h 19m 1m / 16h13m 100% $+2.36 $+26.00 0.376 2026-07-21 20:48
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this yea
resolves 2026-12-31
38 38↑ 100% (38/38) 5h 49m 0m / 1d 82% $+6.86 $+260.50 0.344 2026-08-06 11:01
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 1
resolves 2026-06-20
161 84↑ 100% (84/84) 6h 34m 1m / 20h3m 65% $-0.30 $-25.50 0.305 2026-06-17 12:35
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T150
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betwe
resolves 2026-07-12
87 86↑ 1✕ 99% (86/87) 6h 50m 1m / 1d 48% $-1.34 $-115.00 0.289 2026-07-13 10:40
KXKNESSET-27-AUG01
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
resolves 2026-07-31
30 22↑ 4✕ 85% (22/26) 6h 29m 1h42m / 1d 55% $-2.32 $-51.00 0.261 2026-07-16 19:34
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
151 81↑ 46✕ 64% (81/127) 5h 19m 0m / 1d 100% $+0.87 $+70.50 0.240 2026-08-02 02:37
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
resolves 2026-06-30
10 10↑ 100% (10/10) 9h 4m 1m / 1d 100% $+2.30 $+23.00 0.221 2026-06-18 10:32
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
resolves 2026-06-22
37 37↑ 100% (37/37) 9h 26m 2m / 1d 49% $-2.20 $-81.37 0.212 2026-06-18 13:01
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
30 12↑ 15✕ 44% (12/27) 4h 19m 0m / 1d 100% $+3.58 $+43.00 0.206 2026-08-05 12:12
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
1059 511↑ 100✕ 16○ 84% (511/611) 8h 15m 0m / 1d 100% $+1.91 $+973.94 0.203 2026-08-07 13:26
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 3
resolves 2026-07-01
85 69↑ 100% (69/69) 11h 41m 22m / 21h57m 93% $+4.38 $+302.50 0.171 2026-06-18 04:20
KXMACHADOVENEZUELA-26JUN29-AUG01
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
resolves 2026-07-31
24 2↑ 10✕ 17% (2/12) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+1.00 $+2.00 0.167 2026-07-04 18:12
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL31
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
resolves 2026-07-31
95 70↑ 16✕ 81% (70/86) 9h 54m 1m / 1d 94% $+3.44 $+240.50 0.164 2026-06-30 15:46
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
resolves 2026-12-31
40 20↑ 20✕ 50% (20/40) 6h 16m 0m / 1d 100% $+2.84 $+56.85 0.160 2026-07-30 09:53
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-JAN01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 20
resolves 2026-12-31
122 73↑ 15✕ 83% (73/88) 12h 17m 0m / 1d 92% $+2.96 $+216.00 0.135 2026-08-07 11:53
KXTRUMPATTEND
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
resolves 2026-07-20
126 48↑ 24✕ 67% (48/72) 11h 15m 8m / 1d 100% $+1.15 $+55.25 0.119 2026-07-16 10:20
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T40
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May
resolves 2026-05-31
8 7↑ 1✕ 88% (7/8) 16h 59m 9m / 1d 43% $+3.21 $+22.50 0.103 2026-05-31 08:05
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?
resolves 2026-08-31
40 30↑ 6✕ 4○ 83% (30/36) 0m 0m / 6m 100% $+4.32 $+129.50 0.100 2026-08-07 01:32
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
resolves 2026-12-31
194 49↑ 73✕ 22○ 40% (49/122) 8h 44m 0m / 23h10m 100% $+3.14 $+153.75 0.092 2026-08-07 13:51
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL26-T50
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betwee
resolves 2026-07-26
17 14↑ 3✕ 82% (14/17) 18h 17m 6h49m / 1d 7% $-5.18 $-72.50 0.090 2026-07-23 15:39
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26JUL30-HOLD
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2
resolves 2026-07-31
12 1↑ 11✕ 8% (1/12) 1h 37m 1h37m / 1h37m 100% $+2.00 $+2.00 0.083 2026-07-28 16:39
KXLEAVEOPEC-27
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
8 5↑ 3✕ 62% (5/8) 0m 0m / 0m 100% $+2.20 $+11.00 0.075 2026-07-30 14:59
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-AUG01
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
resolves 2026-07-31
16 11↑ 100% (11/11) 1d 9h 11h28m / 1d 0% $-4.14 $-45.50 0.059 2026-07-08 02:26
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential n
resolves 2028-11-07
14 14↑ 100% (14/14) 1d 11h 1d / 1d 100% $+1.00 $+14.00 0.056 2026-06-08 08:20
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
resolves 2026-07-31
60 46↑ 14✕ 77% (46/60) 1d 10h 2h16m / 1d 0% $-18.93 $-871.00 0.044 2026-06-01 10:46
KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-NMAD
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
633 27↑ 23✕ 54% (27/50) 1d 0h 1m / 1d 93% $+1.74 $+47.00 0.044 2026-07-28 05:32
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
479 71↑ 381✕ 16% (71/452) 7h 13m 9m / 1d 37% $-5.87 $-416.50 0.044 2026-07-31 20:09
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
resolves 2026-07-31
676 298↑ 378✕ 44% (298/676) 1d 2h 1m / 1d 31% $-1.71 $-510.50 0.033 2026-06-06 13:47
KXMUSKTRILLION-27
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
resolves 2026-12-31
18 5↑ 13✕ 28% (5/18) 1d 2h 20h23m / 1d 60% $-2.80 $-14.00 0.021 2026-06-08 18:48
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
resolves 2026-09-30
12 1↑ 11✕ 8% (1/12) 22h 15m 22h15m / 22h15m 100% $+0.50 $+0.50 0.007 2026-08-05 04:47
SENATEME-26-D
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
16 2↑ 14✕ 12% (2/16) 1d 16h 1d / 1d 100% $+1.00 $+2.00 0.006 2026-08-04 20:12
KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina
resolves 2028-11-07
49 3↑ 46✕ 6% (3/49) 5d 22h 5d / 5d 100% $+3.00 $+9.00 0.001 2026-05-30 00:31
KXGREENTERRITORY-29-27
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
15 0↑ 15✕ 0% (0/15) $+0.00 0.000 2026-05-28 19:47
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-PSANPM
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
6 0↑ 6✕ 0% (0/6) $+0.00 0.000 2026-07-19 15:56
KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presid
resolves 2028-11-07
6 0↑ 6✕ 0% (0/6) $+0.00 0.000 2026-05-31 07:35
KXPRESNOMD-28-GN
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin
resolves 2028-11-07
11 0↑ 11✕ 0% (0/11) $+0.00 0.000 2026-06-01 09:12
KXPRESNOMD-28-MK
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat
resolves 2028-11-07
41 0↑ 10✕ 0% (0/10) $+0.00 0.000 2026-07-29 17:00
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin
resolves 2028-11-07
68 0↑ 68✕ 0% (0/68) $+0.00 0.000 2026-05-29 08:09
SENATEMI-26-R
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
23 0↑ 8✕ 8○ 0% (0/8) $+0.00 0.000 2026-08-06 11:18
SENATESC-26-D
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 202
7 0↑ 7✕ 0% (0/7) $+0.00 0.000 2026-07-27 13:00
KXLAIOUT-LCHI-27JAN01
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026
resolves 2026-12-31
3 3↑ 100% (3/3) 0m 0m / 0m 100% $+4.32 $+12.95 3/5 needed 2026-07-29 12:24
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-GMAX
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
4 4↑ 100% (4/4) 0m 0m / 1m 100% $+1.45 $+5.80 4/5 needed 2026-07-21 13:49
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-INDO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 202
resolves 2026-12-31
1 1↑ 100% (1/1) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+3.95 $+3.95 1/5 needed 2026-07-18 08:32
KXKNESSET-27-JUN30
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
resolves 2026-06-30
2 2↑ 100% (2/2) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+7.50 $+15.00 2/5 needed 2026-06-23 12:28
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
resolves 2026-12-31
3 3↑ 100% (3/3) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+3.00 $+9.00 3/5 needed 2026-05-24 08:57
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GER
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?
resolves 2026-12-31
3 3↑ 100% (3/3) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+7.35 $+22.05 3/5 needed 2026-07-04 06:07
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
Will US annex any territory in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
4 4↑ 100% (4/4) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+1.21 $+4.85 4/5 needed 2026-06-12 10:33
KXCBDECISIONENGLAND-26SEP17-HOLD
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after Septembe
resolves 2026-09-17
1 1↑ 100% (1/1) 2h 26m 2h26m / 2h26m 100% $+1.00 $+1.00 1/5 needed 2026-07-31 02:15
KXARREST-27JAN-AFAU
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
6 1↑ 5○ 100% (1/1) 1d 14h 1d / 1d 100% $+2.00 $+2.00 1/5 needed 2026-08-07 04:43
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-GRE
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
resolves 2026-05-16
3 3↑ 100% (3/3) 2d 19h 1h47m / 4d 67% $+2.67 $+8.00 3/5 needed 2026-05-13 10:08
KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26AUG06-HOLD
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 20
resolves 2026-08-06
3 2↑ 1✕ 67% (2/3) 0m 0m / 0m 100% $+3.50 $+7.00 3/5 needed 2026-07-31 00:33
KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26AUG11-HOLD
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at t
resolves 2026-08-11
2 1↑ 1✕ 50% (1/2) 0m 0m / 0m 100% $+4.00 $+4.00 2/5 needed 2026-07-28 21:09
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LJMKOR
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
2 1↑ 1✕ 50% (1/2) 0m 0m / 0m 100% $+2.50 $+2.50 2/5 needed 2026-08-06 16:44
KXALITOANNOUNCERETIRE-26JUN-27JUL01
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?
resolves 2027-06-30
3 1↑ 2✕ 33% (1/3) 10h 34m 10h34m / 10h34m 0% $-12.00 $-12.00 3/5 needed 2026-08-03 06:35
SENATESC-26-R
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2
4 1↑ 3✕ 25% (1/4) 0m 0m / 0m 100% $+1.00 $+1.00 4/5 needed 2026-07-29 22:07
GOVPARTYWI-26-D
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
5 0↑ 3✕ 2○ 0% (0/3) $+0.00 3/5 needed 2026-08-06 05:55
KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nom
resolves 2028-11-07
1 0↑ 1✕ 0% (0/1) $+0.00 1/5 needed 2026-06-02 07:51
SENATEME-26-R
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
4 0↑ 2✕ 2○ 0% (0/2) $+0.00 2/5 needed 2026-08-06 17:35
SENATETX-26-R
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
2 0↑ 2✕ 0% (0/2) $+0.00 2/5 needed 2026-07-22 11:37
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-HOLD
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2
resolves 2026-09-18
1 0↑ 1○ $+0.00 0/5 needed 2026-08-07 03:20
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VZELUKR
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
1 0↑ 1○ $+0.00 0/5 needed 2026-08-07 14:07
SENATEMI-26-D
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
14 0↑ 11○ $+0.00 0/5 needed 2026-08-07 08:09
How to read this table
↑ closed = Kalshi caught up to PM price within 48h (good signal)  |  ✕ expired = trade hit 48h timeout — structural gap, not lead-lag  |  ○ open = still watching
Score ≥ 0.5 = reliable market worth prioritizing  |  Score < 0.2 = circuit breaker territory — consider removing pair
Avg Lag: green ≤ 1h, gray 1–4h, red > 4h