Lag Analysis

Per-market catchup speed and reliability. Score = close rate × speed factor (120 min baseline) — higher is better. Needs ≥ 5 resolved trades to score. Green = fast, predictable lead-lag. Red = structural divergence or slow/unreliable.

Markets Scored
36
Best Score
1.000
Fastest Avg Lag
13m
Total Markets
45
Market Signals Trades Close Rate Avg Lag Min / Max Lag Win Rate Avg P&L Total P&L Score Last Signal
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T20
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May
resolves 2026-05-31
12 12↑ 100% (12/12) 13m 1m / 32m 0% $-21.58 $-259.00 1.000 2026-06-01 10:55
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
21 21↑ 100% (21/21) 13m 1m / 4h21m 100% $+1.02 $+21.50 1.000 2026-06-11 01:33
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
57 45↑ 100% (45/45) 2h 2m 1m / 1d 100% $+1.31 $+58.95 0.984 2026-06-19 15:59
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
47 47↑ 100% (47/47) 3h 38m 1m / 15h44m 100% $+1.53 $+72.00 0.550 2026-05-28 21:08
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 1
resolves 2026-06-18
550 316↑ 100% (316/316) 3h 38m 1m / 18h32m 43% $-3.28 $-1036.50 0.550 2026-06-18 04:30
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
resolves 2026-06-30
26 26↑ 100% (26/26) 3h 49m 1m / 5h24m 0% $-4.62 $-120.25 0.524 2026-05-31 14:55
KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
resolves 2026-12-31
7 7↑ 100% (7/7) 3h 52m 1m / 7h7m 100% $+2.57 $+18.00 0.517 2026-06-18 12:14
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
resolves 2026-07-01
484 352↑ 1○ 100% (352/352) 5h 54m 1m / 1d 69% $+2.98 $+1048.88 0.339 2026-06-23 06:19
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 1
resolves 2026-06-20
161 84↑ 100% (84/84) 6h 34m 1m / 20h3m 65% $-0.30 $-25.50 0.305 2026-06-17 12:35
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
resolves 2026-06-30
10 10↑ 100% (10/10) 9h 4m 1m / 1d 100% $+2.30 $+23.00 0.221 2026-06-18 10:32
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
resolves 2026-06-22
37 37↑ 100% (37/37) 9h 26m 2m / 1d 49% $-2.20 $-81.37 0.212 2026-06-18 13:01
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
resolves 2026-12-31
9 6↑ 3✕ 67% (6/9) 6h 21m 1m / 1d 100% $+2.53 $+15.20 0.210 2026-06-17 18:31
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
320 106↑ 59✕ 2○ 64% (106/165) 7h 19m 0m / 1d 100% $+2.54 $+269.21 0.176 2026-06-23 06:47
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 3
resolves 2026-07-01
85 69↑ 100% (69/69) 11h 41m 22m / 21h57m 93% $+4.38 $+302.50 0.171 2026-06-18 04:20
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260615
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
resolves 2026-06-15
18 11↑ 7✕ 61% (11/18) 7h 11m 1m / 15h56m 100% $+2.82 $+31.00 0.170 2026-05-31 08:04
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
resolves 2026-05-31
16 16↑ 100% (16/16) 13h 56m 22m / 17h3m 19% $-7.84 $-125.50 0.144 2026-05-24 00:27
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T40
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May
resolves 2026-05-31
8 7↑ 1✕ 88% (7/8) 16h 59m 9m / 1d 43% $+3.21 $+22.50 0.103 2026-05-31 08:05
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
resolves 2026-05-31
6 6↑ 100% (6/6) 19h 58m 1h37m / 1d 100% $+2.72 $+16.30 0.100 2026-05-29 10:25
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
resolves 2026-06-30
768 553↑ 58✕ 90% (553/611) 21h 40m 1m / 6d 78% $+7.16 $+3961.27 0.084 2026-06-22 01:04
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential n
resolves 2028-11-07
14 14↑ 100% (14/14) 1d 11h 1d / 1d 100% $+1.00 $+14.00 0.056 2026-06-08 08:20
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
resolves 2026-07-31
60 46↑ 14✕ 77% (46/60) 1d 10h 2h16m / 1d 0% $-18.93 $-871.00 0.044 2026-06-01 10:46
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
resolves 2026-07-31
676 298↑ 378✕ 44% (298/676) 1d 2h 1m / 1d 31% $-1.71 $-510.50 0.033 2026-06-06 13:47
KXUAPFILES-26MAY27-26JUN29
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?
resolves 2026-06-30
43 17↑ 26✕ 40% (17/43) 1d 2h 12h6m / 1d 0% $-43.59 $-741.00 0.030 2026-05-31 08:51
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
420 49↑ 371✕ 12% (49/420) 8h 33m 5h26m / 1d 8% $-9.39 $-460.20 0.027 2026-05-25 17:54
KXTRUMPNBAFINALS-26JUN-DJT
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?
resolves 2026-06-19
54 3↑ 51✕ 6% (3/54) 4h 24m 1m / 6h57m 100% $+4.33 $+13.00 0.025 2026-05-30 22:03
KXMUSKOAI-26
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
resolves 2026-12-31
37 33↑ 4✕ 89% (33/37) 3d 1h 1m / 5d 9% $-10.73 $-354.00 0.024 2026-05-18 10:30
KXMUSKTRILLION-27
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
resolves 2026-12-31
18 5↑ 13✕ 28% (5/18) 1d 2h 20h23m / 1d 60% $-2.80 $-14.00 0.021 2026-06-08 18:48
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
resolves 2026-06-30
280 51↑ 229✕ 18% (51/280) 1d 15h 4m / 3d 2% $-8.59 $-438.00 0.009 2026-05-29 01:04
KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina
resolves 2028-11-07
49 3↑ 46✕ 6% (3/49) 5d 22h 5d / 5d 100% $+3.00 $+9.00 0.001 2026-05-30 00:31
KXGREENTERRITORY-29-27
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
15 0↑ 15✕ 0% (0/15) $+0.00 0.000 2026-05-28 19:47
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
resolves 2026-12-31
23 0↑ 23✕ 0% (0/23) $+0.00 0.000 2026-06-06 11:37
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
6 0↑ 6✕ 0% (0/6) $+0.00 0.000 2026-06-20 22:17
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
resolves 2026-12-31
12 0↑ 12✕ 0% (0/12) $+0.00 0.000 2026-05-25 02:04
KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presid
resolves 2028-11-07
6 0↑ 6✕ 0% (0/6) $+0.00 0.000 2026-05-31 07:35
KXPRESNOMD-28-GN
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin
resolves 2028-11-07
11 0↑ 11✕ 0% (0/11) $+0.00 0.000 2026-06-01 09:12
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin
resolves 2028-11-07
68 0↑ 68✕ 0% (0/68) $+0.00 0.000 2026-05-29 08:09
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
resolves 2026-12-31
3 3↑ 100% (3/3) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+3.00 $+9.00 3/5 needed 2026-05-24 08:57
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GER
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?
resolves 2026-12-31
2 2↑ 100% (2/2) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+9.00 $+18.00 2/5 needed 2026-05-26 10:10
KXTRUMPPHOTO-26MAY17
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)
resolves 2026-05-17
2 2↑ 100% (2/2) 1m 1m / 2m 100% $+22.50 $+45.00 2/5 needed 2026-05-17 16:42
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
Will US annex any territory in 2026?
resolves 2026-12-31
4 4↑ 100% (4/4) 1m 1m / 1m 100% $+1.21 $+4.85 4/5 needed 2026-06-12 10:33
KXNETFLIXRANKSHOW-26JUN01-THE
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week?
resolves 2026-06-02
1 1↑ 100% (1/1) 4h 18m 4h18m / 4h18m 100% $+2.00 $+2.00 1/5 needed 2026-05-30 16:12
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-GRE
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
resolves 2026-05-16
3 3↑ 100% (3/3) 2d 19h 1h47m / 4d 67% $+2.67 $+8.00 3/5 needed 2026-05-13 10:08
KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nom
resolves 2028-11-07
1 0↑ 1✕ 0% (0/1) $+0.00 1/5 needed 2026-06-02 07:51
KXTOPMONTHLY-26AUG-JUS
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spoti
2 0↑ 2✕ 0% (0/2) $+0.00 2/5 needed 2026-05-31 06:53
SENATETX-26-R
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
1 0↑ 1✕ 0% (0/1) $+0.00 1/5 needed 2026-05-31 05:12
How to read this table
↑ closed = Kalshi caught up to PM price within 48h (good signal)  |  ✕ expired = trade hit 48h timeout — structural gap, not lead-lag  |  ○ open = still watching
Score ≥ 0.5 = reliable market worth prioritizing  |  Score < 0.2 = circuit breaker territory — consider removing pair
Avg Lag: green ≤ 1h, gray 1–4h, red > 4h