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| Polymarket Market | Kalshi Market | Category | PM Vol | PM Closes | Match Reason | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?: Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG
|
Politics | $311,879 | 2026-12-31 | Same entity, same outcome (out as SecDef), resolution dates within 3 days (Dec 31 vs Jan 1) | |
| Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9? |
Who will drop out of their election?: Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 11, 2026?
KXDROPOUTPRIMARY-26-MMIL2
|
Elections | $22,189 | 2026-08-09 | Same person (Max Miller), same race (OH-07), same outcome (dropout). Resolution dates within 2 days. | |
| Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31? |
Jeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?: Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026?
KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26SEP01
|
Politics | $19,383 | 2026-08-31 | Same entity and outcome, resolution dates within 3 days (Aug 31 vs Sep 1) | |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?: Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-FMERCGER
|
Politics | $414,610 | 2026-12-31 | Same entity (Friedrich Merz), same outcome (leaving Chancellor office before Jan 1, 2027), resolution dates within 3 days | |
| Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess? |
Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?: Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act?
KXCLARITYVOTE-26JUL-AUG08
|
Politics | $12,119 | 2026-08-08 | Identical outcome: Senate vote on CLARITY Act before August recess. Same resolution date. | |
| Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6? |
Jeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?: Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Aug 6, 2026?
KXPIRROOUT-26AUG-26AUG06
|
Politics | $13,711 | 2026-08-06 | Same entity, same outcome, matching resolution dates (Aug 6) | |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026? |
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (7/26-8/1): Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 26, 2026?
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG01-B149
|
Politics | $17,053 | 2026-07-31 | Same entity (Trump), same outcome (140-159 posts), overlapping date ranges (7/24-7/31 vs 7/26-8/1), minor date mismatch | |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? |
When will Trump and Netanyahu meet?: Will Donald Trump meet in person Benjamin Netanyahu before Aug 1, 2026?
KXTRUMPBIBIMEET-26AUG01-AUG01
|
Politics | $37,439 | 2026-07-31 | Same entities (Trump, Netanyahu), same outcome (meet), matching resolution dates (Jul 31 vs Aug 1) |
| Polymarket Market | Kalshi Ticker | Match Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026? | KXTOPALBUMSPOTIFY-26-BTS | Same album (Arirang-BTS), top album 2026, matching resolution date |
| Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-VLOP | Same entity (Vladimir Padrino López), same outcome (leader of Venezuela), same resolution date (2026-12-31) |
| Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-MRUB | Identical outcome: Marco Rubio as Venezuela leader end of 2026, matching resolution dates. |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-MCM | Same entity (María Corina Machado), same outcome (leader of Venezuela), same resolution date (Dec 31, 2026) |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | KXMEDIARELEASEST-27JAN01 | Same show, same outcome (new episode release), resolution dates within 1 day |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MBSSARA | Same entity (MBS), same outcome (ceasing leadership role), matching resolution dates within 3 days |
| Kash Patel out by July 31? | KXKASHOUT-26APR-AUG01 | Kash Patel out as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026. Resolution date within 1 day of Polymarket. |
| Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7? | KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL10 | Same entity, outcome, and resolution date (2026-07-10). Exact match. |
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-DRON | Same entity (Diosdado Cabello), same outcome (leader/head of state), same resolution date (2026-12-31) |
| US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | KXTRADEDEALCUBA-27-B260801 | Same entities (US/Trump-Cuba), same outcome (economic/trade deal), resolution dates within 3 days (July 31 vs Aug 1) |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | KXVENEZUELALEADER-26DEC31-NMAD | Identical outcome: Maduro as Venezuela leader on 2026-12-31, same resolution date |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | KXLAIOUT-LCHI-27JAN01 | Same entity (Lai Ching-te), same outcome (out as President), resolution dates within 3 days |
| Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? | KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-AVUCPSER | Same entity (Aleksandar Vučić), same outcome (leave President of Serbia), resolution dates within 3 days (Jun 30 vs Jun 28) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? | KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL10 | Same entity (Anthropic/Fable 5), same outcome (restoration for US customers), identical resolution date (Jul 10, 2026) |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-LEB | Same entities (Israel-Lebanon), same outcome (recognition/normalization), similar timeframe |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | KXNETANYAHUOUT-26JUN-JUL01 | Same entity (Netanyahu), same outcome (out as PM), resolution dates within 1 day |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | KXIPOSPACEX-26JUL01 | SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026 matches July 1 close date within 3 days |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 | SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026 matches June 1 close date within 3 days |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN | Both address US-Iran nuclear agreement; resolution dates within 3 days (May 31 vs Jun 1) |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR | Both about 2028 Democratic nomination; 'nominee' vs 'who will run' both address same underlying event |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-RPAU | PM asks if Warsh confirmed; Kalshi asks which Senators vote for him (different outcomes) |
| Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? | KXKANYEISRAEL-27JAN01 | Different time periods: by June 30 vs this year (unclear end date) |