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| Polymarket Market | Kalshi Market | Category | PM Vol | PM Closes | Match Reason | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? |
Who will visit Iran before July?: Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?
KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-JVAN
|
Politics | $159,141 | 2026-06-30 | JD Vance Iran visit/meeting, similar timeframe (1 day difference), diplomatic meeting likely includes visit | |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? |
Peru presidential election runoff margin of victory?: Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be above 12%?
KXPERUPRESMOV-26JUN07-KFUJ-P56
|
Elections | $28,526 | Fujimori 2026 Peru runoff, but threshold differs (12% vs 1%) | ||
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? |
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/25 - 5/31): Will there be more than 75 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from May 25, 2026 to May 31, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T75
|
Politics | $571,868 | 2026-05-31 | Same location, similar timeframe. Polymarket asks for 80 ships any day by May 31; Kalshi asks for >75 transit calls May 25-31. Closest threshold match. | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? |
US-Iran nuclear deal?: Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY
|
Politics | $58,153 | Both address US-Iran agreement by May 31/May 1. Kalshi closes May 1, within 3 days of Polymarket's May 31 deadline. |
| Polymarket Market | Kalshi Ticker | Match Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | KXIPOSPACEX-26JUL01 | SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026 matches July 1 close date within 3 days |
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | KXIPOSPACEX-26JUN01 | SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026 matches June 1 close date within 3 days |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN | Both address US-Iran nuclear agreement; resolution dates within 3 days (May 31 vs Jun 1) |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | KX2028DRUN-28-KHAR | Both about 2028 Democratic nomination; 'nominee' vs 'who will run' both address same underlying event |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-RPAU | PM asks if Warsh confirmed; Kalshi asks which Senators vote for him (different outcomes) |
| Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? | KXKANYEISRAEL-27JAN01 | Different time periods: by June 30 vs this year (unclear end date) |