Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 21:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 21:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $9 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:57 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $14 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $156 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $65 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.311 | 0.659 | -0.348 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.311 | 0.659 | -0.348 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:23 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.311 | 0.659 | -0.348 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:13 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.313 | 0.659 | -0.346 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:57 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:53 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:49 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $47 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:05 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.260 | +0.400 | $25 | 5594m |
| 2026-05-18 19:04 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.260 | +0.400 | $34 | 5594m |
| 2026-05-18 18:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 18:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 18:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 18:23 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 18:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 16:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.653 | -0.335 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 16:11 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.645 | -0.327 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.652 | -0.334 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.652 | -0.334 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.652 | -0.334 | $32 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.652 | -0.334 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.652 | -0.335 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 14:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.316 | 0.643 | -0.327 | $32 | — |
| 2026-05-18 14:23 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.316 | 0.643 | -0.327 | $32 | — |
| 2026-05-18 14:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.316 | 0.643 | -0.327 | $32 | — |
| 2026-05-18 14:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.316 | 0.648 | -0.332 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 13:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.315 | 0.652 | -0.337 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 12:26 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $231 | — |
| 2026-05-18 11:19 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:53 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.310 | +0.350 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.160 | -0.090 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.160 | -0.090 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.160 | -0.030 | $26 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.070 | 0.037 | +0.033 | $46 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.080 | 0.037 | +0.043 | $64 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.110 | 0.060 | +0.050 | $88 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.130 | 0.060 | +0.070 | $34 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.220 | 0.160 | +0.060 | $9 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.250 | 0.160 | +0.090 | $15 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.250 | 0.160 | +0.090 | $15 | 1m |