Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 22:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.663 | -0.366 | $20 | — |
| 2026-05-17 22:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.663 | -0.364 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 21:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.669 | -0.368 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 19:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.669 | -0.368 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-17 19:11 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.669 | -0.368 | $12 | — |
| 2026-05-17 19:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.669 | -0.368 | $8 | — |
| 2026-05-17 16:53 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.670 | -0.371 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-17 16:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.670 | -0.373 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-17 16:42 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXTRUMPPHOTO-26MAY17
will-trump-be-photographed-every-day-this-week-511-517 |
SELL | 0.300 | 0.570 | -0.270 | $15 | 2m |
| 2026-05-17 16:41 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXTRUMPPHOTO-26MAY17
will-trump-be-photographed-every-day-this-week-511-517 |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.570 | -0.140 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-05-17 16:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.688 | -0.391 | $21 | — |
| 2026-05-17 14:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.688 | -0.391 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-17 14:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.688 | -0.391 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-17 14:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.297 | 0.688 | -0.391 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-13 10:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.350 | +0.330 | $74 | 1m |
| 2026-05-13 10:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.330 | +0.350 | $74 | 47m |
| 2026-05-13 10:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.330 | +0.350 | $74 | 5974m |
| 2026-05-13 10:08 | 0x56e3d9a0… | L1 |
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-GRE
will-greece-be-in-the-top-10-at-eurovision-2026 Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? |
BUY | 0.876 | 0.840 | +0.036 | $3048 | 6024m |
| 2026-05-13 10:08 | 0x56e3d9a0… | L1 |
KXEUROVISIONRANK-26TOP10-GRE
will-greece-be-in-the-top-10-at-eurovision-2026 Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? |
BUY | 0.876 | 0.840 | +0.036 | $3048 | 107m |
| 2026-05-13 10:00 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $22 | 14842m |
| 2026-05-13 10:00 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $22 | 14837m |
| 2026-05-13 10:00 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $22 | 14831m |
| 2026-05-13 09:57 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $4 | 14848m |
| 2026-05-13 09:57 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $4 | 14842m |
| 2026-05-13 09:57 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.540 | -0.100 | $4 | 14837m |
| 2026-05-13 08:55 | 0x04b954ec… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.253 | 0.300 | -0.047 | $1053 | 8553m |
| 2026-05-13 08:55 | 0x04b954ec… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.253 | 0.300 | -0.047 | $1053 | 8548m |
| 2026-05-13 08:55 | 0x04b954ec… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.253 | 0.300 | -0.047 | $1053 | 8542m |
| 2026-05-13 08:26 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.330 | +0.360 | $6 | 6128m |
| 2026-05-13 08:26 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.330 | +0.360 | $6 | 6128m |
| 2026-05-13 08:26 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.330 | +0.360 | $6 | 6123m |
| 2026-05-13 08:26 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.330 | +0.360 | $6 | 6123m |
| 2026-05-13 07:33 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.360 | +0.330 | $41 | 199m |
| 2026-05-13 07:33 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.360 | +0.330 | $41 | 193m |
| 2026-05-13 07:33 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.360 | +0.330 | $41 | 188m |
| 2026-05-13 05:08 | 0xc602e347… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $9 | 1m |
| 2026-05-13 04:33 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.470 | +0.050 | $6 | 37m |
| 2026-05-13 04:33 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.470 | +0.050 | $6 | 27m |
| 2026-05-13 04:33 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.470 | +0.050 | $6 | 27m |
| 2026-05-13 04:32 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.470 | +0.060 | $10 | 37m |
| 2026-05-13 04:32 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.470 | +0.060 | $10 | 32m |
| 2026-05-13 04:32 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.470 | +0.060 | $10 | 27m |
| 2026-05-13 04:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.540 | -0.130 | $2 | 15178m |
| 2026-05-13 04:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.540 | -0.130 | $2 | 15173m |
| 2026-05-13 04:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.540 | -0.130 | $2 | 15167m |
| 2026-05-13 03:31 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.370 | +0.180 | $1680 | 6425m |
| 2026-05-13 03:31 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.420 | +0.130 | $1680 | 6420m |
| 2026-05-13 03:31 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.450 | +0.100 | $1680 | 6415m |
| 2026-05-13 03:31 | 0x78048aa2… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.370 | +0.180 | $2750 | 6425m |
| 2026-05-13 03:31 | 0x78048aa2… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.420 | +0.130 | $2750 | 6420m |