Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $135 | 6595m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $31 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $31 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $31 | 6595m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $169 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $169 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $169 | 6595m |
| 2026-05-13 00:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $194 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $194 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $165 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $29 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $165 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $29 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $39 | 6611m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $39 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $39 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:14 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $600 | 6622m |
| 2026-05-13 00:14 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $600 | 6617m |
| 2026-05-13 00:14 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $600 | 6611m |
| 2026-05-13 00:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $528 | 6628m |
| 2026-05-13 00:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $528 | 6622m |
| 2026-05-13 00:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $528 | 6617m |
| 2026-05-12 23:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.540 | -0.080 | $3 | 7865m |
| 2026-05-12 23:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.540 | -0.080 | $3 | 7860m |
| 2026-05-12 23:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.540 | -0.080 | $3 | 7855m |
| 2026-05-12 22:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.346 | 0.634 | -0.288 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-12 22:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.346 | 0.634 | -0.288 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-12 22:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.346 | 0.634 | -0.288 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-12 21:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $1 | 7996m |
| 2026-05-12 21:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $1 | 7990m |
| 2026-05-12 21:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.349 | 0.634 | -0.285 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-12 21:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.349 | 0.634 | -0.285 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-12 21:22 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.349 | 0.634 | -0.285 | $38 | — |
| 2026-05-12 21:22 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.349 | 0.634 | -0.285 | $38 | — |
| 2026-05-12 21:22 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.349 | 0.634 | -0.285 | $38 | — |
| 2026-05-12 21:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $5 | 7061m |
| 2026-05-12 21:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $5 | 7056m |
| 2026-05-12 20:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.354 | 0.609 | -0.255 | $4 | 337m |
| 2026-05-12 20:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.354 | 0.609 | -0.255 | $4 | 332m |
| 2026-05-12 20:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.354 | 0.609 | -0.255 | $4 | 326m |
| 2026-05-12 20:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.354 | 0.609 | -0.255 | $2 | 343m |
| 2026-05-12 20:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.354 | 0.609 | -0.255 | $2 | 337m |
| 2026-05-12 20:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.354 | 0.609 | -0.255 | $2 | 332m |
| 2026-05-12 19:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $3 | 375m |
| 2026-05-12 19:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $3 | 370m |
| 2026-05-12 19:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $3 | 364m |
| 2026-05-12 19:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $18 | 7147m |
| 2026-05-12 19:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $18 | 7142m |
| 2026-05-12 19:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $26 | 7153m |
| 2026-05-12 19:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $26 | 7147m |