Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 19:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $26 | 7153m |
| 2026-05-12 19:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $26 | 7147m |
| 2026-05-12 19:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $26 | 7142m |
| 2026-05-12 19:06 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.270 | +0.400 | $571 | 7809m |
| 2026-05-12 19:06 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.270 | +0.400 | $571 | 7798m |
| 2026-05-12 19:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $15 | 429m |
| 2026-05-12 19:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $10 | 429m |
| 2026-05-12 19:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $15 | 424m |
| 2026-05-12 19:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $10 | 424m |
| 2026-05-12 18:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $5 | 440m |
| 2026-05-12 18:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $5 | 434m |
| 2026-05-12 18:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $5 | 429m |
| 2026-05-12 18:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.280 | +0.390 | $265 | 7819m |
| 2026-05-12 18:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.280 | +0.390 | $265 | 7814m |
| 2026-05-12 18:53 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.270 | +0.400 | $265 | 7809m |
| 2026-05-12 18:52 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.280 | +0.380 | $424 | 7819m |
| 2026-05-12 18:52 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.280 | +0.380 | $424 | 7814m |
| 2026-05-12 18:50 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $13 | 7196m |
| 2026-05-12 18:50 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $13 | 7191m |
| 2026-05-12 18:50 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $13 | 7185m |
| 2026-05-12 18:49 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $28 | 7196m |
| 2026-05-12 18:49 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $28 | 7191m |
| 2026-05-12 18:49 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.540 | -0.070 | $28 | 7185m |
| 2026-05-12 17:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $0 | 500m |
| 2026-05-12 17:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $0 | 494m |
| 2026-05-12 17:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.362 | 0.609 | -0.247 | $0 | 489m |
| 2026-05-12 17:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.613 | -0.249 | $24 | 516m |
| 2026-05-12 17:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.614 | -0.250 | $24 | 510m |
| 2026-05-12 17:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.609 | -0.245 | $24 | 505m |
| 2026-05-12 17:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.613 | -0.249 | $36 | 516m |
| 2026-05-12 17:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.614 | -0.250 | $36 | 510m |
| 2026-05-12 17:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.609 | -0.245 | $36 | 505m |
| 2026-05-12 17:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.613 | -0.249 | $37 | 516m |
| 2026-05-12 17:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.614 | -0.250 | $37 | 510m |
| 2026-05-12 17:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.609 | -0.245 | $37 | 505m |
| 2026-05-12 17:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.613 | -0.249 | $36 | 516m |
| 2026-05-12 17:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.614 | -0.250 | $36 | 510m |
| 2026-05-12 17:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.613 | -0.249 | $37 | 516m |
| 2026-05-12 17:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.364 | 0.614 | -0.250 | $37 | 510m |
| 2026-05-12 17:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.365 | 0.613 | -0.248 | $36 | 523m |
| 2026-05-12 17:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.365 | 0.613 | -0.248 | $36 | 516m |
| 2026-05-12 17:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.365 | 0.613 | -0.248 | $37 | 523m |
| 2026-05-12 17:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.365 | 0.613 | -0.248 | $37 | 516m |
| 2026-05-12 17:23 | 0xe0f1e775… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.369 | 0.612 | -0.243 | $7 | 534m |
| 2026-05-12 17:23 | 0xe0f1e775… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.369 | 0.614 | -0.245 | $7 | 528m |
| 2026-05-12 17:23 | 0xe0f1e775… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.369 | 0.613 | -0.244 | $7 | 523m |
| 2026-05-12 17:20 | 0xe0f1e775… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.369 | 0.612 | -0.243 | $51 | 534m |
| 2026-05-12 17:20 | 0xe0f1e775… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.369 | 0.614 | -0.245 | $51 | 528m |
| 2026-05-12 17:20 | 0xe0f1e775… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.369 | 0.613 | -0.244 | $51 | 523m |
| 2026-05-12 17:16 | 0xe0f1e775… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.369 | 0.613 | -0.244 | $24 | 539m |