Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 06:24 | 0xa6dcc89a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.680 | -0.190 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-21 06:23 | 0xa6dcc89a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.680 | -0.190 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-21 06:02 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.680 | -0.230 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-21 05:17 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.680 | -0.240 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-21 05:15 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.180 | -0.040 | $19 | — |
| 2026-06-21 05:10 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.560 | 0.680 | -0.120 | $36 | — |
| 2026-06-21 05:10 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.560 | 0.680 | -0.120 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-21 05:06 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.550 | 0.680 | -0.130 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 05:06 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.550 | 0.680 | -0.130 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 05:01 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.540 | 0.680 | -0.140 | $8 | 298m |
| 2026-06-21 04:59 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.680 | -0.200 | $2 | 358m |
| 2026-06-21 04:59 | 0xa6dcc89a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.680 | -0.190 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 04:52 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.680 | -0.170 | $10 | 308m |
| 2026-06-21 04:23 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.680 | -0.160 | $52 | 338m |
| 2026-06-21 04:18 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.680 | -0.220 | $1 | 467m |
| 2026-06-21 04:10 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.560 | 0.680 | -0.120 | $2 | 348m |
| 2026-06-21 03:44 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.680 | -0.090 | $6 | 377m |
| 2026-06-21 03:26 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.580 | 0.680 | -0.100 | $2 | 387m |
| 2026-06-21 03:22 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.182 | -0.042 | $18 | — |
| 2026-06-21 03:13 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.650 | 0.680 | -0.030 | $3 | 237m |
| 2026-06-21 02:43 | 0xa6dcc89a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.680 | -0.340 | $34 | 1302m |
| 2026-06-21 01:53 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.178 | -0.038 | $96 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:40 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.890 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:34 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.890 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:27 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.890 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:22 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:19 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:19 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:19 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:18 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.890 | -0.040 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:18 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.900 | -0.050 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:18 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $870 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:16 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:13 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.900 | -0.050 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:13 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $336 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:06 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.840 | 0.900 | -0.060 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:06 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $174 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 01:04 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $15 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:04 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.900 | -0.050 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:04 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $87 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:03 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.900 | -0.050 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:03 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $87 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:03 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $18 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:02 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.900 | -0.050 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:02 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $48 | — |
| 2026-06-21 00:59 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.840 | 0.900 | -0.060 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-21 00:59 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $810 | — |
| 2026-06-21 00:40 | 0x4cfed358… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.840 | 0.900 | -0.060 | $3 | 504m |
| 2026-06-21 00:35 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.880 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 00:10 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.880 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |