Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 01:02 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.900 | -0.050 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-21 01:02 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $48 | — |
| 2026-06-21 00:59 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.840 | 0.900 | -0.060 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-21 00:59 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.900 | -0.030 | $810 | — |
| 2026-06-21 00:40 | 0x4cfed358… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.840 | 0.900 | -0.060 | $3 | 504m |
| 2026-06-21 00:35 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.880 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 00:10 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.880 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 22:17 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026 Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? |
BUY | 0.110 | 0.074 | +0.036 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 22:17 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026 Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? |
BUY | 0.110 | 0.074 | +0.036 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 21:50 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.810 | 0.850 | -0.040 | $7 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 21:49 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.810 | 0.850 | -0.040 | $1 | 3m |
| 2026-06-20 21:49 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.810 | 0.850 | -0.040 | $6 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 21:22 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.810 | 0.900 | -0.090 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-20 21:22 | 0x35e36faa… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.810 | 0.850 | -0.040 | $36 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 21:13 | 0xca972cdf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.900 | -0.100 | $7 | 3m |
| 2026-06-20 21:13 | 0x06cb7353… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.900 | -0.100 | $1 | 3m |
| 2026-06-20 21:13 | 0x7c3db723… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.810 | 0.900 | -0.090 | $180 | — |
| 2026-06-20 21:12 | 0x35e36faa… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.860 | -0.060 | $1 | 17m |
| 2026-06-20 21:12 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.860 | -0.060 | $0 | 17m |
| 2026-06-20 21:12 | 0x35e36faa… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.860 | -0.060 | $35 | 17m |
| 2026-06-20 21:12 | 0x06cb7353… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.860 | -0.070 | $1 | 37m |
| 2026-06-20 21:11 | 0xca972cdf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.860 | -0.070 | $8 | 37m |
| 2026-06-20 21:11 | 0xb6ce892d… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.860 | -0.070 | $5 | 37m |
| 2026-06-20 21:11 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.860 | -0.060 | $20 | 17m |
| 2026-06-20 21:11 | 0x7c3db723… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.860 | -0.060 | $178 | 17m |
| 2026-06-20 21:08 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.860 | -0.070 | $243 | 37m |
| 2026-06-20 20:53 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.840 | -0.050 | $20 | 47m |
| 2026-06-20 20:45 | 0xca972cdf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.830 | -0.040 | $8 | 57m |
| 2026-06-20 20:45 | 0x06cb7353… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.830 | -0.040 | $1 | 57m |
| 2026-06-20 20:45 | 0x35e36faa… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.830 | -0.040 | $35 | 57m |
| 2026-06-20 20:45 | 0x7c3db723… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.830 | -0.040 | $174 | 57m |
| 2026-06-20 20:34 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.840 | -0.040 | $20 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 20:24 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.790 | 0.850 | -0.060 | $20 | 77m |
| 2026-06-20 20:22 | 0xe47439f4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.734 | 0.680 | +0.054 | $5053 | 820m |
| 2026-06-20 20:21 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.760 | 0.830 | -0.070 | $19 | 1726m |
| 2026-06-20 15:12 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.946 | -0.036 | $736 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 15:12 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.945 | -0.035 | $18 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 15:11 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.946 | -0.036 | $118 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 15:01 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.930 | -0.030 | $1800 | 6m |
| 2026-06-20 14:45 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $473 | 72m |
| 2026-06-20 14:44 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:43 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $128 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:38 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $25 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:38 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:28 | 0xd6ddc655… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.880 | -0.030 | $237 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 14:20 | 0x5b6331e7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.690 | +0.050 | $5 | 1181m |
| 2026-06-20 14:20 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.927 | -0.047 | $830 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:20 | 0xd6ddc655… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.872 | 0.927 | -0.055 | $260 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:19 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.927 | -0.037 | $604 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:37 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.930 | -0.050 | $3286 | 42m |