Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 12:52 | 0xd6ddc655… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.730 | 0.670 | +0.060 | $221 | 32m |
| 2026-06-20 12:45 | 0xd6ddc655… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.730 | 0.670 | +0.060 | $26 | 32m |
| 2026-06-20 12:42 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.720 | 0.670 | +0.050 | $633 | 32m |
| 2026-06-20 12:42 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.710 | 0.670 | +0.040 | $1940 | 27m |
| 2026-06-20 12:11 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.630 | +0.040 | $292 | 17m |
| 2026-06-20 12:10 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.630 | -0.300 | $8 | 72m |
| 2026-06-20 11:49 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.590 | -0.210 | $10 | 87m |
| 2026-06-20 11:30 | 0xb48b1a8f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.590 | -0.180 | $40 | 107m |
| 2026-06-20 11:24 | 0xb48b1a8f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.590 | -0.180 | $4 | 107m |
| 2026-06-20 11:20 | 0xb48b1a8f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.580 | -0.170 | $16 | 117m |
| 2026-06-20 11:20 | 0xb48b1a8f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.580 | -0.170 | $192 | 117m |
| 2026-06-20 11:01 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.580 | -0.180 | $130 | 139m |
| 2026-06-20 10:46 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.580 | -0.150 | $5 | 149m |
| 2026-06-20 10:36 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.580 | -0.150 | $4 | 159m |
| 2026-06-20 10:23 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.580 | -0.150 | $30 | 179m |
| 2026-06-20 08:41 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.188 | -0.058 | $6 | 1280m |
| 2026-06-20 08:35 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.188 | -0.058 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-20 08:35 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.188 | -0.058 | $90 | — |
| 2026-06-20 08:28 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.570 | -0.140 | $3 | 238m |
| 2026-06-20 08:17 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.570 | -0.140 | $25 | 248m |
| 2026-06-20 07:42 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.680 | 0.710 | -0.030 | $3 | 17m |
| 2026-06-20 06:42 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $139 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:42 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:38 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $7 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:37 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:36 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:34 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.530 | -0.040 | $8 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:33 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.530 | -0.040 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:33 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.530 | -0.040 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:29 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.510 | 0.460 | +0.050 | $570 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:29 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.530 | -0.050 | $8 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:28 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.530 | -0.050 | $8 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 06:27 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:24 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $7 | 8m |
| 2026-06-20 06:22 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $27 | 37m |
| 2026-06-20 06:21 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $23 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:19 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $104 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:17 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:17 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:17 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:15 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $609 | 47m |
| 2026-06-20 05:57 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.680 | 0.710 | -0.030 | $4 | 117m |
| 2026-06-20 05:47 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $89 | 67m |
| 2026-06-20 05:45 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.670 | 0.710 | -0.040 | $67 | 138m |
| 2026-06-20 05:42 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $6 | 97m |
| 2026-06-20 05:40 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $3 | 77m |
| 2026-06-20 05:34 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $161 | 87m |
| 2026-06-20 05:33 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $6 | 87m |
| 2026-06-20 05:32 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $60 | 87m |
| 2026-06-20 05:29 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.460 | +0.090 | $330 | 107m |