Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 06:19 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $104 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:17 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:17 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:17 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 06:15 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.460 | +0.060 | $609 | 47m |
| 2026-06-20 05:57 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.680 | 0.710 | -0.030 | $4 | 117m |
| 2026-06-20 05:47 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $89 | 67m |
| 2026-06-20 05:45 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.670 | 0.710 | -0.040 | $67 | 138m |
| 2026-06-20 05:42 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $6 | 97m |
| 2026-06-20 05:40 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $3 | 77m |
| 2026-06-20 05:34 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $161 | 87m |
| 2026-06-20 05:33 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $6 | 87m |
| 2026-06-20 05:32 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.460 | +0.080 | $60 | 87m |
| 2026-06-20 05:29 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.460 | +0.090 | $330 | 107m |
| 2026-06-20 05:13 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.450 | +0.120 | $102 | 167m |
| 2026-06-20 05:12 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.187 | -0.067 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:12 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.450 | +0.120 | $254 | 177m |
| 2026-06-20 05:11 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.450 | +0.120 | $102 | 167m |
| 2026-06-20 05:11 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.569 | 0.450 | +0.119 | $102 | 167m |
| 2026-06-20 05:06 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $4 | 177m |
| 2026-06-20 05:05 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $6 | 177m |
| 2026-06-20 05:05 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $6 | 177m |
| 2026-06-20 05:05 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.575 | 0.440 | +0.135 | $407 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:04 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $258 | 177m |
| 2026-06-20 05:03 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $6 | 177m |
| 2026-06-20 05:03 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.440 | +0.140 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:03 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $447 | 177m |
| 2026-06-20 05:03 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $5 | 177m |
| 2026-06-20 05:03 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:03 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.440 | +0.130 | $203 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:02 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $302 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:02 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:02 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:02 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.440 | +0.130 | $203 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:01 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:00 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-20 05:00 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $56 | — |
| 2026-06-20 04:59 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-20 04:54 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.450 | +0.120 | $153 | 187m |
| 2026-06-20 04:53 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.450 | +0.100 | $204 | 148m |
| 2026-06-20 04:53 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.537 | 0.450 | +0.087 | $102 | 128m |
| 2026-06-20 04:52 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.470 | 0.440 | +0.030 | $26 | 97m |
| 2026-06-20 04:52 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.450 | +0.080 | $102 | 102m |
| 2026-06-20 04:52 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.450 | +0.080 | $102 | 102m |
| 2026-06-20 04:52 | 0x92e53057… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.480 | 0.440 | +0.040 | $107 | 97m |
| 2026-06-20 04:47 | 0x61ea8375… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.490 | 0.440 | +0.050 | $5 | 97m |
| 2026-06-20 04:28 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.187 | -0.067 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-20 04:28 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.187 | -0.067 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-20 04:28 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.187 | -0.067 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-20 04:28 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.187 | -0.067 | $1 | — |