Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 01:01 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.650 | -0.270 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-20 01:00 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.650 | -0.270 | $66 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:38 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.620 | 0.650 | -0.030 | $130 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:34 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $172 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:34 | 0x0262c1d0… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $111 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:30 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:29 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $50 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:29 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:18 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:09 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $9 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:07 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.185 | -0.065 | $54 | 1792m |
| 2026-06-20 00:07 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.185 | -0.065 | $15 | 1792m |
| 2026-06-20 00:03 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-20 00:00 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.650 | -0.280 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-19 23:59 | 0x0262c1d0… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.650 | -0.290 | $108 | — |
| 2026-06-19 19:37 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.650 | -0.300 | $29 | 1055m |
| 2026-06-19 19:13 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.650 | -0.320 | $66 | 1088m |
| 2026-06-19 18:50 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.660 | -0.320 | $5 | 1109m |
| 2026-06-19 18:45 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.660 | -0.320 | $9 | — |
| 2026-06-19 17:28 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.650 | -0.310 | $68 | 1189m |
| 2026-06-19 17:11 | 0xb10047d6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.640 | -0.310 | $1444 | — |
| 2026-06-19 16:46 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.630 | -0.310 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-19 16:09 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.700 | 0.650 | +0.050 | $5 | 705m |
| 2026-06-19 16:09 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.700 | 0.650 | +0.050 | $5 | 705m |
| 2026-06-19 15:59 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.049 | 0.089 | -0.040 | $6 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 15:28 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.650 | -0.320 | $66 | 1309m |
| 2026-06-19 14:58 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.049 | 0.084 | -0.035 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 14:57 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.049 | 0.084 | -0.035 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 14:56 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.049 | 0.084 | -0.035 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 14:49 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.620 | -0.270 | $35 | 1339m |
| 2026-06-19 14:33 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.049 | 0.084 | -0.035 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 14:30 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:30 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:30 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.640 | -0.300 | $38 | — |
| 2026-06-19 14:30 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $1827 | 87m |
| 2026-06-19 14:30 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:30 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $11 | 87m |
| 2026-06-19 14:30 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $78 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $4 | 87m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $0 | 87m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $3 | 87m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $29 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $208 | 87m |
| 2026-06-19 14:29 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | 186m |