Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 14:26 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-19 14:26 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $63 | — |
| 2026-06-19 14:26 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.049 | 0.084 | -0.035 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 14:25 | 0xeb54562f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-19 14:25 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.650 | -0.320 | $66 | 1375m |
| 2026-06-19 14:25 | 0x93fb8127… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.600 | +0.060 | $472 | — |
| 2026-06-19 13:51 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.049 | 0.088 | -0.039 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 13:50 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.049 | 0.088 | -0.039 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 13:49 | 0x25257a6a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.640 | -0.320 | $34 | 1405m |
| 2026-06-19 13:48 | 0x25257a6a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.640 | -0.320 | $78 | 1405m |
| 2026-06-19 13:47 | 0x25257a6a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.640 | -0.320 | $7 | 1405m |
| 2026-06-19 13:46 | 0x25257a6a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.640 | -0.320 | $88 | 1405m |
| 2026-06-19 13:43 | 0x25257a6a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.640 | -0.320 | $50 | — |
| 2026-06-19 13:02 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.650 | 0.700 | -0.050 | $13 | 17m |
| 2026-06-19 13:00 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.630 | -0.260 | $10 | 1456m |
| 2026-06-19 12:57 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.690 | 0.720 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 12:56 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.630 | -0.260 | $1 | 1456m |
| 2026-06-19 12:51 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.630 | -0.270 | $72 | 1466m |
| 2026-06-19 12:49 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.630 | -0.270 | $2 | 1466m |
| 2026-06-19 12:45 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.630 | -0.270 | $6 | 1476m |
| 2026-06-19 12:27 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.590 | -0.230 | $72 | 42m |
| 2026-06-19 12:23 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.620 | -0.260 | $12 | 1487m |
| 2026-06-19 12:22 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.590 | -0.220 | $74 | 42m |
| 2026-06-19 12:11 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.590 | -0.170 | $42 | 52m |
| 2026-06-19 11:52 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.600 | -0.180 | $3 | 1028m |
| 2026-06-19 11:38 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.411 | 0.600 | -0.189 | $491 | 1041m |
| 2026-06-19 11:37 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.553 | 0.600 | -0.047 | $32 | 22m |
| 2026-06-19 11:36 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.600 | -0.170 | $86 | 1031m |
| 2026-06-19 11:31 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.600 | -0.170 | $86 | 1031m |
| 2026-06-19 11:11 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.630 | -0.220 | $8 | 1059m |
| 2026-06-19 11:08 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.630 | -0.230 | $102 | 1059m |
| 2026-06-19 11:02 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.600 | 0.630 | -0.030 | $121 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 11:02 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.630 | -0.230 | $45 | 1085m |
| 2026-06-19 11:01 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.630 | -0.240 | $11 | 1580m |
| 2026-06-19 10:56 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.630 | -0.220 | $82 | 1085m |
| 2026-06-19 10:50 | 0x0a6d26d3… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.640 | -0.220 | $9 | 1095m |
| 2026-06-19 10:46 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.640 | -0.270 | $18 | 1590m |
| 2026-06-19 10:44 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.640 | -0.270 | $6 | 1590m |
| 2026-06-19 10:44 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.640 | -0.270 | $3 | 1590m |
| 2026-06-19 10:43 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.640 | -0.270 | $3 | 1590m |
| 2026-06-19 10:43 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.640 | -0.270 | $5 | 1590m |
| 2026-06-19 10:42 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.660 | -0.290 | $71 | 1599m |
| 2026-06-19 10:42 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.660 | -0.290 | $5 | 1599m |
| 2026-06-19 10:42 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.660 | -0.290 | $4 | 1599m |
| 2026-06-19 10:40 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.660 | -0.290 | $100 | 1599m |
| 2026-06-19 10:40 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.660 | -0.290 | $100 | 1599m |
| 2026-06-19 10:39 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.660 | -0.290 | $22 | 1599m |
| 2026-06-19 10:39 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.660 | -0.300 | $225 | 1599m |
| 2026-06-19 10:39 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.660 | -0.290 | $26 | 1599m |
| 2026-06-19 10:39 | 0x5cd5c8d7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.670 | -0.300 | $26 | — |