Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 09:34 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.540 | -0.030 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 09:33 | 0x0d968f77… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.540 | -0.040 | $107 | — |
| 2026-06-19 09:33 | 0x0d968f77… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.540 | -0.040 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-19 09:32 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.540 | -0.030 | $102 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 09:32 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.540 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 09:32 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.540 | -0.030 | $22 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 09:31 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.540 | -0.050 | $147 | 22m |
| 2026-06-19 09:26 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.520 | -0.070 | $900 | 27m |
| 2026-06-19 09:20 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.430 | +0.150 | $83 | 37m |
| 2026-06-19 09:20 | 0xb48b1a8f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.430 | +0.140 | $114 | 37m |
| 2026-06-19 09:20 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.430 | +0.150 | $116 | 37m |
| 2026-06-19 09:16 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.430 | +0.150 | $232 | 37m |
| 2026-06-19 08:48 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.420 | +0.160 | $278 | 67m |
| 2026-06-19 08:41 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.410 | +0.170 | $307 | 77m |
| 2026-06-19 08:32 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.410 | +0.180 | $82 | 77m |
| 2026-06-19 07:48 | 0x5b6331e7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.410 | +0.180 | $5 | 130m |
| 2026-06-19 07:22 | 0xc682d794… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.410 | +0.170 | $88 | 160m |
| 2026-06-19 06:57 | 0xcc2620f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.443 | 0.410 | +0.033 | $1358 | 72m |
| 2026-06-19 06:47 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.410 | +0.200 | $58 | 191m |
| 2026-06-19 06:45 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.400 | -0.060 | $2 | 151m |
| 2026-06-19 06:45 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.400 | -0.060 | $2 | 151m |
| 2026-06-19 06:45 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.400 | -0.070 | $7 | 151m |
| 2026-06-19 05:49 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.178 | -0.058 | $21 | — |
| 2026-06-19 05:19 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.310 | 0.340 | -0.030 | $17 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 03:21 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.179 | -0.059 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-19 03:19 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.300 | 0.330 | -0.030 | $60 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 02:14 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.300 | 0.350 | -0.050 | $17 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 02:14 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.300 | 0.350 | -0.050 | $2333 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $7063 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $59 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $2 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $9 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $1 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 01:38 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.400 | 0.360 | +0.040 | $6 | 310m |
| 2026-06-19 01:32 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.360 | +0.030 | $1278 | 319m |
| 2026-06-19 01:28 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.360 | +0.030 | $80 | 319m |
| 2026-06-19 01:26 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.170 | -0.050 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-19 01:17 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.176 | -0.056 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-19 00:47 | 0x0d968f77… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.400 | +0.200 | $43 | 229m |
| 2026-06-19 00:26 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.410 | +0.160 | $124 | 248m |
| 2026-06-19 00:03 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.440 | -0.070 | $38 | 37m |
| 2026-06-18 23:53 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.440 | -0.040 | $14 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.440 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.440 | -0.030 | $131 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:51 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $7 | — |