Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 06:45 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.400 | -0.070 | $7 | 151m |
| 2026-06-19 05:49 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.178 | -0.058 | $21 | — |
| 2026-06-19 05:19 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.310 | 0.340 | -0.030 | $17 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 03:21 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.179 | -0.059 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-19 03:19 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.300 | 0.330 | -0.030 | $60 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 02:14 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.300 | 0.350 | -0.050 | $17 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 02:14 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.300 | 0.350 | -0.050 | $2333 | 1m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $7063 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $59 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $2 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $9 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 02:03 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $1 | 280m |
| 2026-06-19 01:38 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.400 | 0.360 | +0.040 | $6 | 310m |
| 2026-06-19 01:32 | 0x7bc14171… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.360 | +0.030 | $1278 | 319m |
| 2026-06-19 01:28 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.360 | +0.030 | $80 | 319m |
| 2026-06-19 01:26 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.170 | -0.050 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-19 01:17 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.176 | -0.056 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-19 00:47 | 0x0d968f77… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.400 | +0.200 | $43 | 229m |
| 2026-06-19 00:26 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.410 | +0.160 | $124 | 248m |
| 2026-06-19 00:03 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.440 | -0.070 | $38 | 37m |
| 2026-06-18 23:53 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.440 | -0.040 | $14 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.440 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.440 | -0.030 | $131 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:51 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $7 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.440 | +0.130 | $330 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.440 | +0.130 | $151 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:34 | 0xd7ea6b24… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.440 | -0.040 | $156 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:33 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.180 | -0.060 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:33 | 0xb10047d6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $1692 | 82m |
| 2026-06-18 23:25 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.440 | +0.130 | $228 | 82m |
| 2026-06-18 23:05 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.180 | -0.060 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:00 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.574 | 0.430 | +0.144 | $102 | 208m |
| 2026-06-18 22:56 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.430 | +0.130 | $171 | 208m |
| 2026-06-18 22:52 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $145 | 122m |
| 2026-06-18 21:48 | 0xac6a1ca4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.430 | +0.140 | $13 | 278m |
| 2026-06-18 21:48 | 0xeec50ede… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.430 | +0.140 | $51 | 278m |
| 2026-06-18 20:58 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.770 | +0.030 | $4 | 2497m |
| 2026-06-18 20:58 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.770 | +0.030 | $19 | 2497m |
| 2026-06-18 20:58 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.770 | +0.030 | $4 | 2497m |
| 2026-06-18 20:57 | 0x93511d72… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.480 | +0.080 | $27 | 9m |
| 2026-06-18 20:48 | 0xac6a1ca4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.490 | +0.050 | $14 | 22m |
| 2026-06-18 20:48 | 0xeec50ede… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.490 | +0.050 | $55 | 22m |
| 2026-06-18 20:44 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.770 | -0.030 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 20:43 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.188 | -0.068 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:34 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.490 | -0.040 | $1012 | 27m |