Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 00:47 | 0x0d968f77… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.400 | +0.200 | $43 | 229m |
| 2026-06-19 00:26 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.410 | +0.160 | $124 | 248m |
| 2026-06-19 00:03 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.440 | -0.070 | $38 | 37m |
| 2026-06-18 23:53 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.440 | -0.040 | $14 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.440 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:52 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.440 | -0.030 | $131 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:51 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $102 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $7 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.440 | +0.130 | $330 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:40 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.440 | +0.130 | $151 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:34 | 0xd7ea6b24… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.440 | -0.040 | $156 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 23:33 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.180 | -0.060 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:33 | 0xb10047d6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $1692 | 82m |
| 2026-06-18 23:25 | 0xfb5148fc… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.440 | +0.130 | $228 | 82m |
| 2026-06-18 23:05 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.180 | -0.060 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-18 23:00 | 0x384fdc42… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.574 | 0.430 | +0.144 | $102 | 208m |
| 2026-06-18 22:56 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.430 | +0.130 | $171 | 208m |
| 2026-06-18 22:52 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.440 | +0.120 | $145 | 122m |
| 2026-06-18 21:48 | 0xac6a1ca4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.430 | +0.140 | $13 | 278m |
| 2026-06-18 21:48 | 0xeec50ede… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.430 | +0.140 | $51 | 278m |
| 2026-06-18 20:58 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.770 | +0.030 | $4 | 2497m |
| 2026-06-18 20:58 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.770 | +0.030 | $19 | 2497m |
| 2026-06-18 20:58 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.770 | +0.030 | $4 | 2497m |
| 2026-06-18 20:57 | 0x93511d72… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.480 | +0.080 | $27 | 9m |
| 2026-06-18 20:48 | 0xac6a1ca4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.490 | +0.050 | $14 | 22m |
| 2026-06-18 20:48 | 0xeec50ede… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.490 | +0.050 | $55 | 22m |
| 2026-06-18 20:44 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.770 | -0.030 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 20:43 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.188 | -0.068 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:34 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.490 | -0.040 | $1012 | 27m |
| 2026-06-18 20:24 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.188 | -0.068 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:23 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.188 | -0.068 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:21 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.490 | -0.040 | $90 | 27m |
| 2026-06-18 20:11 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.480 | -0.040 | $3 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 20:11 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.480 | -0.040 | $41 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 20:11 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.480 | -0.040 | $88 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 20:08 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $150 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 20:08 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $161 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 20:08 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $7 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:07 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $679 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 20:07 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.480 | -0.070 | $111 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:00 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.480 | -0.070 | $41 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 19:59 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.480 | -0.070 | $1 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 19:52 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.030 | 0.060 | -0.030 | $1 | 1457m |
| 2026-06-18 19:50 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.030 | 0.060 | -0.030 | $1 | 1457m |
| 2026-06-18 19:49 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.030 | 0.060 | -0.030 | $3 | 1457m |
| 2026-06-18 19:32 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $143 | 319m |