Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 20:44 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.770 | -0.030 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 20:43 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.188 | -0.068 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:34 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.490 | -0.040 | $1012 | 27m |
| 2026-06-18 20:24 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.188 | -0.068 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:23 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.188 | -0.068 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:21 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.490 | -0.040 | $90 | 27m |
| 2026-06-18 20:11 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.480 | -0.040 | $3 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 20:11 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.480 | -0.040 | $41 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 20:11 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.480 | -0.040 | $88 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 20:08 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $150 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 20:08 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $161 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 20:08 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $7 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:07 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $679 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 20:07 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.480 | -0.070 | $111 | — |
| 2026-06-18 20:00 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.480 | -0.070 | $41 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 19:59 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.480 | -0.070 | $1 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 19:52 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.030 | 0.060 | -0.030 | $1 | 1457m |
| 2026-06-18 19:50 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.030 | 0.060 | -0.030 | $1 | 1457m |
| 2026-06-18 19:49 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.030 | 0.060 | -0.030 | $3 | 1457m |
| 2026-06-18 19:32 | 0x2117ae94… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.440 | +0.150 | $143 | 319m |
| 2026-06-18 19:31 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $14 | 319m |
| 2026-06-18 19:31 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.440 | +0.170 | $2642 | 319m |
| 2026-06-18 19:31 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.440 | -0.050 | $39 | 102m |
| 2026-06-18 19:31 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.440 | +0.160 | $4 | 319m |
| 2026-06-18 19:25 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.440 | -0.060 | $7 | 102m |
| 2026-06-18 19:25 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.440 | -0.060 | $11 | 102m |
| 2026-06-18 19:25 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.440 | -0.060 | $14 | 102m |
| 2026-06-18 19:21 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.440 | -0.070 | $2 | 102m |
| 2026-06-18 19:21 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.440 | +0.180 | $5 | 319m |
| 2026-06-18 19:21 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.440 | +0.180 | $125 | 319m |
| 2026-06-18 19:21 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.440 | +0.180 | $135 | 319m |
| 2026-06-18 19:21 | 0x7e35a2a8… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.440 | -0.060 | $76 | 102m |
| 2026-06-18 19:15 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.187 | -0.067 | $10 | — |
| 2026-06-18 19:14 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.480 | +0.150 | $3 | 112m |
| 2026-06-18 19:13 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.460 | -0.090 | $4 | 112m |
| 2026-06-18 19:13 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.480 | -0.110 | $421 | 112m |
| 2026-06-18 19:13 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.187 | -0.067 | $16 | — |
| 2026-06-18 19:13 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.480 | -0.110 | $1059 | 112m |
| 2026-06-18 19:09 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.460 | +0.200 | $264 | 112m |
| 2026-06-18 18:59 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.172 | -0.052 | $42 | — |
| 2026-06-18 18:43 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.172 | -0.052 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-18 18:20 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.380 | -0.040 | $2 | 2m |
| 2026-06-18 18:20 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.380 | -0.040 | $11 | 2m |
| 2026-06-18 18:20 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.380 | -0.040 | $136 | 2m |
| 2026-06-18 18:19 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.380 | -0.050 | $2 | 87m |
| 2026-06-18 18:19 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.380 | -0.050 | $66 | 87m |
| 2026-06-18 18:15 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.380 | -0.060 | $6 | 97m |
| 2026-06-18 18:15 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.380 | -0.060 | $2 | 97m |
| 2026-06-18 18:15 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.380 | -0.060 | $32 | 97m |
| 2026-06-18 17:16 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.188 | -0.048 | $15 | — |