Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 11:07 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.600 | -0.270 | $33 | 291m |
| 2026-06-18 10:55 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.630 | -0.310 | $0 | 301m |
| 2026-06-18 10:55 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.630 | -0.310 | $0 | 301m |
| 2026-06-18 10:54 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.630 | -0.310 | $0 | 301m |
| 2026-06-18 10:32 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.050 | 0.090 | -0.040 | $10 | 173m |
| 2026-06-18 10:04 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.280 | 0.190 | +0.090 | $4 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 09:50 | 0xca08d6c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.630 | -0.310 | $0 | 382m |
| 2026-06-18 09:49 | 0xca08d6c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.630 | -0.310 | $0 | 382m |
| 2026-06-18 09:48 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.620 | -0.300 | $0 | 382m |
| 2026-06-18 09:48 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.620 | -0.300 | $0 | 382m |
| 2026-06-18 09:48 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.620 | -0.300 | $0 | 382m |
| 2026-06-18 09:48 | 0x97520e8e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.620 | -0.300 | $0 | 382m |
| 2026-06-18 09:46 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.630 | -0.310 | $17 | 382m |
| 2026-06-18 09:31 | 0x8db4f2bc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.032 | 0.064 | -0.032 | $0 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 08:41 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.183 | -0.033 | $4 | 982m |
| 2026-06-18 08:40 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.183 | -0.033 | $1 | 982m |
| 2026-06-18 08:30 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.220 | 0.160 | +0.060 | $0 | 399m |
| 2026-06-18 08:28 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.220 | 0.160 | +0.060 | $0 | 399m |
| 2026-06-18 08:28 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.033 | 0.066 | -0.033 | $1 | 262m |
| 2026-06-18 08:07 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.033 | 0.066 | -0.033 | $1 | 278m |
| 2026-06-18 07:30 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.255 | 0.200 | +0.055 | $75 | 2m |
| 2026-06-18 07:25 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.270 | 0.200 | +0.070 | $10 | 122m |
| 2026-06-18 07:15 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.310 | 0.240 | +0.070 | $3 | 57m |
| 2026-06-18 06:28 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.520 | -0.150 | $3 | 42m |
| 2026-06-18 06:16 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.520 | -0.150 | $2 | 52m |
| 2026-06-18 06:16 | 0xe3e4bded… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.360 | 0.520 | -0.160 | $304 | 52m |
| 2026-06-18 06:15 | 0xe3e4bded… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.520 | -0.140 | $5 | 52m |
| 2026-06-18 06:15 | 0xe3e4bded… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.520 | -0.140 | $44 | 52m |
| 2026-06-18 06:07 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.520 | -0.140 | $35 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 06:06 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.520 | -0.120 | $2 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 06:02 | 0x34379b9a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.520 | +0.030 | $2 | 27m |
| 2026-06-18 06:02 | 0x34379b9a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.520 | +0.030 | $3 | 27m |
| 2026-06-18 05:54 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.520 | -0.040 | $1 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 05:52 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.520 | -0.040 | $27 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 05:48 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.520 | -0.050 | $8 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 05:41 | 0xca08d6c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.420 | +0.160 | $4 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 05:41 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.420 | +0.110 | $282 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 05:41 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.420 | +0.110 | $5 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.420 | +0.140 | $2 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $37 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $7 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $82 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0xa6dcc89a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $60 | 77m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.480 | -0.070 | $7 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 04:52 | 0x8db4f2bc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.037 | 0.071 | -0.034 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 04:30 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.960 | +0.038 | $998 | 22m |
| 2026-06-18 04:24 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $13972 | 32m |
| 2026-06-18 04:20 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.999 | 0.870 | +0.129 | $1909 | 22m |
| 2026-06-18 04:20 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $20 | 32m |
| 2026-06-18 04:12 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.780 | +0.218 | $499 | 37m |