Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 00:20 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-18 00:16 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-18 00:16 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-18 00:05 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $0 | 287m |
| 2026-06-18 00:05 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $5 | 287m |
| 2026-06-18 00:05 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 23:58 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $0 | 297m |
| 2026-06-17 23:58 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $0 | 297m |
| 2026-06-17 23:58 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $431 | 297m |
| 2026-06-17 23:57 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $0 | 297m |
| 2026-06-17 23:57 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.680 | +0.318 | $200 | 297m |
| 2026-06-17 23:39 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.060 | 0.100 | -0.040 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 23:31 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.400 | +0.200 | $79 | 471m |
| 2026-06-17 23:30 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.400 | +0.200 | $3 | 471m |
| 2026-06-17 23:30 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.400 | +0.200 | $0 | 471m |
| 2026-06-17 23:26 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $0 | 325m |
| 2026-06-17 23:26 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $1 | 325m |
| 2026-06-17 23:26 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $5 | 325m |
| 2026-06-17 23:26 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $998 | 325m |
| 2026-06-17 23:25 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-17 23:25 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $398 | — |
| 2026-06-17 23:25 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-17 23:25 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $958 | — |
| 2026-06-17 23:24 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.060 | 0.110 | -0.050 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 23:24 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-17 23:24 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-17 23:20 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.240 | -0.040 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 23:18 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $0 | 334m |
| 2026-06-17 23:18 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $499 | 334m |
| 2026-06-17 23:09 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.060 | 0.100 | -0.040 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 23:07 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $0 | 344m |
| 2026-06-17 23:07 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $419 | 344m |
| 2026-06-17 23:04 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.037 | 0.067 | -0.030 | $25 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 23:03 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $0 | 344m |
| 2026-06-17 23:03 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.700 | +0.298 | $25 | 344m |
| 2026-06-17 22:54 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-17 22:50 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | 363m |
| 2026-06-17 22:50 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $1 | 363m |
| 2026-06-17 22:50 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | 363m |
| 2026-06-17 22:50 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $7 | 363m |
| 2026-06-17 22:49 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-17 22:49 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-17 22:41 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | 372m |
| 2026-06-17 22:37 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | 372m |
| 2026-06-17 22:37 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | 372m |
| 2026-06-17 22:34 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | 372m |
| 2026-06-17 22:34 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $2595 | 372m |
| 2026-06-17 22:30 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $499 | 382m |
| 2026-06-17 22:24 | 0x0a6d26d3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.033 | 0.066 | -0.033 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 22:14 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.420 | -0.040 | $2 | 1m |