Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 22:24 | 0x0a6d26d3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.033 | 0.066 | -0.033 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 22:14 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.420 | -0.040 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 22:05 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.430 | -0.060 | $37 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 22:03 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.720 | +0.278 | $421 | 410m |
| 2026-06-17 21:42 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.240 | -0.040 | $40 | 102m |
| 2026-06-17 21:39 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.690 | +0.308 | $505 | 431m |
| 2026-06-17 21:36 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.690 | +0.308 | $2 | 431m |
| 2026-06-17 21:35 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.690 | +0.308 | $499 | 431m |
| 2026-06-17 21:32 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.410 | -0.040 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 20:25 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.250 | -0.040 | $42 | 177m |
| 2026-06-17 19:45 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.880 | +0.118 | $922 | 57m |
| 2026-06-17 19:36 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $499 | 52m |
| 2026-06-17 19:34 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $2 | 52m |
| 2026-06-17 19:25 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $250 | 62m |
| 2026-06-17 19:19 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $2 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 19:18 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $10 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 19:14 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $29 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 19:14 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $21 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 18:31 | 0xe23b2940… | L1 |
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01
will-saudi-arabia-join-the-abraham-accords-before-2027 Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.130 | -0.050 | $2 | 1716m |
| 2026-06-17 18:06 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.500 | -0.030 | $47 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 17:51 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.997 | 0.890 | +0.107 | $15 | 165m |
| 2026-06-17 17:50 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.500 | -0.040 | $3 | 62m |
| 2026-06-17 17:45 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.250 | 0.280 | -0.030 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 17:41 | 0xf0d5eb1c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.890 | +0.108 | $61 | 165m |
| 2026-06-17 17:40 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.997 | 0.890 | +0.107 | $2733 | 165m |
| 2026-06-17 17:37 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.920 | +0.078 | $20973 | 168m |
| 2026-06-17 17:36 | 0x7c3db723… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.996 | 0.920 | +0.076 | $299 | 168m |
| 2026-06-17 17:35 | 0x7c3db723… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.997 | 0.920 | +0.077 | $11592 | 168m |
| 2026-06-17 17:19 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.500 | -0.030 | $24 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 16:51 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.194 | -0.044 | $8 | 92m |
| 2026-06-17 16:48 | 0xaf2383b6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.250 | 0.280 | -0.030 | $341 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 16:45 | 0x0a6d26d3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.036 | 0.066 | -0.030 | $0 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 16:27 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.510 | -0.040 | $21 | 17m |
| 2026-06-17 16:27 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.510 | -0.040 | $47 | 17m |
| 2026-06-17 16:27 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.510 | -0.040 | $47 | 17m |
| 2026-06-17 16:19 | 0xcd9607c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.510 | -0.050 | $74 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 16:18 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.996 | 0.920 | +0.076 | $4851 | 251m |
| 2026-06-17 16:05 | 0xc5403a67… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.181 | -0.041 | $1 | 147m |
| 2026-06-17 15:50 | 0x4d6b74a2… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.147 | 0.199 | -0.052 | $83 | 166m |
| 2026-06-17 15:48 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.199 | -0.059 | $7 | 166m |
| 2026-06-17 15:41 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.188 | -0.058 | $6 | 176m |
| 2026-06-17 15:28 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $49 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 15:28 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $49 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 15:10 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.176 | -0.046 | $6 | 205m |
| 2026-06-17 15:05 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.250 | 0.290 | -0.040 | $50 | 62m |
| 2026-06-17 15:03 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.520 | -0.030 | $49 | 5m |
| 2026-06-17 15:03 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.520 | -0.040 | $48 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 15:03 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.520 | -0.040 | $45 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 15:03 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.520 | -0.040 | $96 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 15:03 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.520 | -0.040 | $48 | 72m |