Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 12:39 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $1 | 1052m |
| 2026-06-17 12:39 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $0 | 1052m |
| 2026-06-17 12:36 | 0x5a218c7a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.996 | 0.900 | +0.096 | $797 | 966m |
| 2026-06-17 12:35 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.986 | 0.670 | +0.316 | $95 | 504m |
| 2026-06-17 12:35 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.988 | 0.820 | +0.168 | $5 | 493m |
| 2026-06-17 12:33 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $1 | 1052m |
| 2026-06-17 12:33 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.820 | +0.178 | $6 | 493m |
| 2026-06-17 12:32 | 0xa9f2d6b4… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.985 | 0.670 | +0.315 | $2 | 504m |
| 2026-06-17 12:32 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.670 | +0.320 | $937 | 504m |
| 2026-06-17 12:31 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.996 | 0.820 | +0.176 | $3672 | 493m |
| 2026-06-17 12:30 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.670 | +0.320 | $1969 | 504m |
| 2026-06-17 12:29 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.670 | +0.320 | $4984 | 513m |
| 2026-06-17 12:29 | 0xa9f2d6b4… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.992 | 0.670 | +0.322 | $2500 | 513m |
| 2026-06-17 12:25 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.993 | 0.670 | +0.323 | $733 | 513m |
| 2026-06-17 12:25 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.670 | +0.320 | $483 | 513m |
| 2026-06-17 12:24 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.207 | -0.057 | $8 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 12:24 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.207 | -0.057 | $8 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 12:22 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.560 | -0.130 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:16 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.560 | -0.160 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:10 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.972 | 0.670 | +0.302 | $61 | 523m |
| 2026-06-17 12:08 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.560 | -0.050 | $10 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:07 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.198 | -0.048 | $4 | 22m |
| 2026-06-17 12:06 | 0x3d1487b9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.981 | 0.710 | +0.271 | $490 | 533m |
| 2026-06-17 12:06 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.962 | 0.690 | +0.272 | $137 | 533m |
| 2026-06-17 12:06 | 0x3d1487b9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.710 | +0.269 | $76 | 533m |
| 2026-06-17 12:06 | 0x3d1487b9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.710 | +0.269 | $51 | 533m |
| 2026-06-17 12:06 | 0x3d1487b9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.710 | +0.269 | $88 | 533m |
| 2026-06-17 12:02 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.540 | -0.050 | $5 | 87m |
| 2026-06-17 12:00 | 0x5b6331e7… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.064 | 0.113 | -0.049 | $9 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 11:52 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.210 | -0.060 | $8 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 11:52 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.210 | -0.060 | $4 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 11:44 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.870 | +0.106 | $0 | 77m |
| 2026-06-17 11:44 | 0xdc83474b… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.992 | 0.870 | +0.122 | $1111 | 77m |
| 2026-06-17 11:44 | 0xdc83474b… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.910 | +0.080 | $49 | 377m |
| 2026-06-17 11:41 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.560 | -0.100 | $46 | — |
| 2026-06-17 11:41 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.560 | -0.100 | $46 | — |
| 2026-06-17 11:39 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.700 | +0.279 | $120 | 562m |
| 2026-06-17 11:37 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.700 | +0.279 | $8 | 562m |
| 2026-06-17 11:36 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.700 | +0.279 | $233 | 562m |
| 2026-06-17 11:36 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.870 | +0.106 | $19 | 87m |
| 2026-06-17 11:34 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.700 | +0.279 | $489 | 562m |
| 2026-06-17 11:33 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.700 | +0.279 | $77 | 562m |
| 2026-06-17 11:30 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.770 | +0.209 | $0 | 6m |