Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 11:33 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.700 | +0.279 | $77 | 562m |
| 2026-06-17 11:30 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.770 | +0.209 | $0 | 6m |
| 2026-06-17 11:30 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.770 | +0.209 | $47 | 6m |
| 2026-06-17 11:26 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.979 | 0.770 | +0.209 | $5 | 6m |
| 2026-06-17 11:24 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.570 | -0.100 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-17 11:22 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.540 | 0.570 | -0.030 | $22 | — |
| 2026-06-17 11:20 | 0x8db4f2bc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.064 | 0.116 | -0.052 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 11:20 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.983 | 0.730 | +0.253 | $833 | 3m |
| 2026-06-17 11:19 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.983 | 0.730 | +0.253 | $116 | 3m |
| 2026-06-17 11:17 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.983 | 0.730 | +0.253 | $526 | 3m |
| 2026-06-17 11:15 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.190 | 0.150 | +0.040 | $59 | 1140m |
| 2026-06-17 11:10 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.700 | +0.278 | $1207 | 591m |
| 2026-06-17 11:07 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.982 | 0.700 | +0.282 | $4 | 591m |
| 2026-06-17 11:07 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.530 | -0.060 | $5 | 166m |
| 2026-06-17 11:05 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.982 | 0.700 | +0.282 | $21 | 591m |
| 2026-06-17 11:04 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.982 | 0.700 | +0.282 | $9 | 591m |
| 2026-06-17 11:02 | 0x68c24bf4… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.190 | 0.225 | -0.035 | $1055 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 11:01 | 0x8db4f2bc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
BUY | 0.210 | 0.179 | +0.031 | $3 | 19m |
| 2026-06-17 11:01 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.810 | +0.168 | $98 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 11:01 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.810 | +0.168 | $644 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 11:01 | 0x5a218c7a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.972 | 0.910 | +0.062 | $642 | 72m |
| 2026-06-17 11:00 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.810 | +0.168 | $7 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:59 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.810 | +0.166 | $44 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:56 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.810 | +0.166 | $77 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:56 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.810 | +0.166 | $41 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:56 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.810 | +0.166 | $26 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:55 | 0x5a218c7a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.993 | 0.900 | +0.093 | $338 | 1063m |
| 2026-06-17 10:55 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.810 | +0.166 | $45 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:55 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.810 | +0.166 | $45 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:52 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.980 | 0.830 | +0.150 | $2744 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:52 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.068 | 0.108 | -0.040 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:52 | 0x9e807759… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.976 | 0.830 | +0.146 | $5157 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:49 | 0x35bbbad2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.989 | 0.900 | +0.089 | $9389 | 435m |
| 2026-06-17 10:48 | 0x8c0b637b… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.973 | 0.830 | +0.143 | $610 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:45 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.560 | -0.080 | $23 | — |
| 2026-06-17 10:43 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.964 | 0.830 | +0.134 | $964 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:43 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.830 | +0.137 | $1661 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:43 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:42 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:42 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:42 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:42 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:42 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:42 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $14 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:41 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $23 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:41 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:41 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $132 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:39 | 0x4aa87d51… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.975 | 0.830 | +0.145 | $638 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:39 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.967 | 0.840 | +0.127 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-17 10:38 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.530 | -0.050 | $48 | 176m |