Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 10:12 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.259 | -0.049 | $10 | 47m |
| 2026-06-17 10:10 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.750 | -0.160 | $25 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:09 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.750 | -0.160 | $24 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:09 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.580 | 0.730 | -0.150 | $29 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:09 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.750 | -0.160 | $353 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:09 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.570 | 0.860 | -0.290 | $28 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:08 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.854 | 0.930 | -0.076 | $43 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:08 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.854 | 0.930 | -0.076 | $43 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:08 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.859 | 0.930 | -0.071 | $859 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:08 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.860 | -0.420 | $22 | 1112m |
| 2026-06-17 10:07 | 0x4c2da46b… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.860 | -0.410 | $83 | 1112m |
| 2026-06-17 10:07 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.500 | +0.040 | $27 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 10:03 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.610 | 0.840 | -0.230 | $0 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:02 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.836 | 0.930 | -0.094 | $42 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:02 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.836 | 0.930 | -0.094 | $42 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 10:00 | 0xd501dd1c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.840 | -0.180 | $0 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 09:59 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.260 | 0.340 | -0.080 | $0 | 4m |
| 2026-06-17 09:58 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.340 | -0.140 | $0 | 4m |
| 2026-06-17 09:58 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.260 | 0.340 | -0.080 | $13 | 4m |
| 2026-06-17 09:58 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.260 | 0.340 | -0.080 | $11 | 4m |
| 2026-06-17 09:55 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.290 | 0.340 | -0.050 | $2 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 09:52 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:46 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.259 | -0.049 | $2 | 67m |
| 2026-06-17 09:45 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.270 | 0.400 | -0.130 | $10 | 8m |
| 2026-06-17 09:44 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.270 | 0.400 | -0.130 | $4 | 8m |
| 2026-06-17 09:43 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.560 | -0.120 | $44 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:43 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.560 | -0.120 | $44 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.400 | -0.200 | $0 | 27m |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.230 | 0.400 | -0.170 | $12 | 27m |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0x6e4976c2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.400 | -0.050 | $44 | 10m |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.310 | 0.400 | -0.090 | $15 | 10m |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 09:37 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.074 | 0.120 | -0.046 | $37 | — |