Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 07:47 | 0xd24b9555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.400 | 0.360 | +0.040 | $205 | 686m |
| 2026-06-17 07:38 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.682 | 0.770 | -0.088 | $30 | 146m |
| 2026-06-17 07:34 | 0x73653992… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.210 | 0.140 | +0.070 | $19 | 1449m |
| 2026-06-17 07:31 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.160 | 0.260 | -0.100 | $7 | 77m |
| 2026-06-17 07:31 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.160 | 0.260 | -0.100 | $1 | 77m |
| 2026-06-17 07:30 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.687 | 0.770 | -0.083 | $17 | 156m |
| 2026-06-17 07:30 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.260 | -0.110 | $8 | 77m |
| 2026-06-17 07:29 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.687 | 0.770 | -0.083 | $17 | 156m |
| 2026-06-17 07:27 | 0x8db4f2bc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.114 | -0.047 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 07:26 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.270 | -0.130 | $7 | 87m |
| 2026-06-17 07:25 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.912 | 0.840 | +0.072 | $104 | 165m |
| 2026-06-17 07:22 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.910 | 0.840 | +0.070 | $506 | 165m |
| 2026-06-17 07:22 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.911 | 0.840 | +0.071 | $781 | 165m |
| 2026-06-17 07:20 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.270 | -0.120 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-17 07:19 | 0xf45748cb… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.260 | -0.130 | $8 | 87m |
| 2026-06-17 07:19 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.160 | 0.270 | -0.110 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-17 07:19 | 0xf45748cb… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.133 | 0.260 | -0.127 | $327 | 87m |
| 2026-06-17 07:18 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.160 | 0.270 | -0.110 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-17 07:16 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.160 | 0.270 | -0.110 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 07:15 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.732 | 0.770 | -0.038 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 07:15 | 0xf45748cb… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.270 | -0.120 | $7 | — |
| 2026-06-17 07:07 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.270 | -0.070 | $40 | 42m |
| 2026-06-17 07:07 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.270 | -0.060 | $1 | 42m |
| 2026-06-17 07:06 | 0xf45748cb… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.270 | -0.120 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 07:06 | 0xf45748cb… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.164 | 0.270 | -0.106 | $283 | — |
| 2026-06-17 07:03 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.270 | -0.060 | $2 | 42m |
| 2026-06-17 07:03 | 0xe39783f9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.270 | -0.060 | $39 | — |
| 2026-06-17 07:02 | 0xf45748cb… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.270 | -0.070 | $60 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:59 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.270 | -0.060 | $5 | 42m |
| 2026-06-17 06:58 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.230 | 0.270 | -0.040 | $138 | 27m |
| 2026-06-17 06:58 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.220 | 0.270 | -0.050 | $1 | 32m |
| 2026-06-17 06:55 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.770 | +0.030 | $467 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:55 | 0x4afac1fa… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.201 | 0.270 | -0.069 | $215 | 47m |
| 2026-06-17 06:53 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.340 | +0.040 | $3 | 793m |
| 2026-06-17 06:52 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.340 | +0.040 | $1 | 793m |
| 2026-06-17 06:51 | 0x4afac1fa… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.270 | -0.070 | $50 | 47m |
| 2026-06-17 06:50 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.540 | -0.110 | $20 | 744m |
| 2026-06-17 06:48 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.340 | +0.040 | $2 | 803m |
| 2026-06-17 06:47 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.801 | 0.760 | +0.041 | $12 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:47 | 0x8db4f2bc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.066 | 0.111 | -0.045 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-17 06:47 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.760 | +0.040 | $333 | 92m |
| 2026-06-17 06:47 | 0x9def9524… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.760 | +0.040 | $786 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:47 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.801 | 0.760 | +0.041 | $77 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:46 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.804 | 0.760 | +0.044 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:42 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.340 | +0.050 | $2 | 803m |
| 2026-06-17 06:35 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.580 | 0.720 | -0.140 | $18 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:34 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.820 | 0.760 | +0.060 | $69 | 136m |
| 2026-06-17 06:25 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.720 | -0.290 | $13 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:25 | 0x73653992… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.611 | 0.720 | -0.109 | $920 | — |
| 2026-06-17 06:24 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.630 | 0.720 | -0.090 | $63 | — |