Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 01:47 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.290 | -0.090 | $5 | 356m |
| 2026-06-17 01:47 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.200 | 0.290 | -0.090 | $5 | 356m |
| 2026-06-17 01:47 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.290 | -0.080 | $12 | 356m |
| 2026-06-17 01:44 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.937 | 0.770 | +0.167 | $187 | 840m |
| 2026-06-17 01:44 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.180 | 0.290 | -0.110 | $9 | 356m |
| 2026-06-17 01:44 | 0xd087c72c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.943 | 0.770 | +0.173 | $141 | 1141m |
| 2026-06-17 01:42 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.710 | -0.120 | $128 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:39 | 0xd087c72c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.940 | 0.770 | +0.170 | $6 | 850m |
| 2026-06-17 01:27 | 0xbacd00c9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.320 | 0.290 | +0.030 | $19 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:27 | 0xbacd00c9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.320 | 0.290 | +0.030 | $13 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:23 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.370 | 0.290 | +0.080 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:22 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.710 | -0.120 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:21 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.370 | 0.290 | +0.080 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:19 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.290 | +0.070 | $14 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:17 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.290 | +0.070 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:17 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.901 | 0.770 | +0.131 | $6 | 530m |
| 2026-06-17 01:17 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.949 | 0.770 | +0.179 | $252 | 1169m |
| 2026-06-17 01:17 | 0x168205ab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.400 | 0.290 | +0.110 | $20 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:17 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.410 | 0.290 | +0.120 | $12 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:17 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.941 | 0.770 | +0.171 | $41 | 1169m |
| 2026-06-17 01:16 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.420 | 0.290 | +0.130 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-17 01:10 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.892 | 0.780 | +0.112 | $7 | — |
| 2026-06-17 00:59 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.710 | -0.120 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-17 00:55 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.949 | 0.780 | +0.169 | $190 | — |
| 2026-06-17 00:55 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.942 | 0.780 | +0.162 | $47 | — |
| 2026-06-17 00:53 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.854 | 0.780 | +0.074 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-17 00:50 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.710 | -0.120 | $59 | 344m |
| 2026-06-17 00:50 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.590 | 0.710 | -0.120 | $1 | 344m |
| 2026-06-17 00:49 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $27 | — |
| 2026-06-17 00:29 | 0x05ede659… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.987 | 0.880 | +0.107 | $30 | 1051m |
| 2026-06-17 00:27 | 0x05ede659… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.987 | 0.880 | +0.107 | $616 | 1060m |
| 2026-06-17 00:27 | 0x05ede659… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.987 | 0.880 | +0.107 | $59 | 1060m |
| 2026-06-17 00:27 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.848 | 0.780 | +0.068 | $39 | — |
| 2026-06-17 00:18 | 0x05ede659… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.985 | 0.880 | +0.105 | $55 | 1070m |
| 2026-06-17 00:00 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.640 | 0.710 | -0.070 | $95 | — |
| 2026-06-17 00:00 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $41 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.881 | 0.780 | +0.101 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.650 | 0.710 | -0.060 | $2 | 400m |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $12 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.881 | 0.780 | +0.101 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $16 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $15 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.882 | 0.780 | +0.102 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:53 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.650 | 0.710 | -0.060 | $41 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:52 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.881 | 0.780 | +0.101 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:50 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.249 | -0.039 | $5 | 32m |
| 2026-06-16 23:48 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.710 | -0.050 | $36 | 410m |
| 2026-06-16 23:45 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $15 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:39 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.710 | -0.050 | $29 | 419m |