Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 22:30 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $100 | 1248m |
| 2026-06-16 22:28 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $5 | 1248m |
| 2026-06-16 22:27 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.410 | 0.290 | +0.120 | $20 | 620m |
| 2026-06-16 22:26 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $1 | 1257m |
| 2026-06-16 22:26 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $35 | 1257m |
| 2026-06-16 22:22 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.320 | 0.280 | +0.040 | $43 | 263m |
| 2026-06-16 22:20 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $2 | 1257m |
| 2026-06-16 22:20 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $2 | 1257m |
| 2026-06-16 22:20 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $227 | 1257m |
| 2026-06-16 22:15 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.964 | 0.890 | +0.074 | $1109 | 1075m |
| 2026-06-16 22:12 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.958 | 0.890 | +0.068 | $134 | 1055m |
| 2026-06-16 22:10 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.958 | 0.890 | +0.068 | $134 | — |
| 2026-06-16 22:10 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.928 | 0.890 | +0.038 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-16 22:08 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.949 | 0.900 | +0.049 | $97 | 725m |
| 2026-06-16 22:08 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.944 | 0.900 | +0.044 | $155 | 725m |
| 2026-06-16 22:07 | 0x8c0b637b… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.810 | 0.780 | +0.030 | $101 | 639m |
| 2026-06-16 22:04 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.920 | 0.890 | +0.030 | $20 | 716m |
| 2026-06-16 22:04 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.920 | 0.890 | +0.030 | $221 | — |
| 2026-06-16 22:01 | 0x5b242dc2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.417 | 0.290 | +0.127 | $20 | 648m |
| 2026-06-16 21:59 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.840 | 0.790 | +0.050 | $25 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:59 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.934 | 0.900 | +0.034 | $14 | 725m |
| 2026-06-16 21:59 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.947 | 0.900 | +0.047 | $474 | 725m |
| 2026-06-16 21:55 | 0xf0ed9e68… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.920 | 0.790 | +0.130 | $488 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:55 | 0x8c0b637b… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.910 | 0.790 | +0.120 | $228 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:55 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.958 | 0.900 | +0.058 | $75 | 1065m |
| 2026-06-16 21:54 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.958 | 0.900 | +0.058 | $117 | 1065m |
| 2026-06-16 21:54 | 0xf0ed9e68… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.962 | 0.900 | +0.062 | $962 | 1084m |
| 2026-06-16 21:50 | 0xf0ed9e68… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.920 | 0.790 | +0.130 | $23 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.940 | +0.038 | $469 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.940 | +0.038 | $469 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.950 | 0.790 | +0.160 | $1092 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.986 | 0.940 | +0.046 | $51 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.180 | 0.310 | -0.130 | $1 | 599m |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.940 | +0.038 | $469 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:46 | 0x9a3fa403… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.971 | 0.940 | +0.031 | $4988 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:46 | 0x5b242dc2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.950 | 0.790 | +0.160 | $30 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:46 | 0x5b242dc2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.944 | 0.790 | +0.154 | $25 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:46 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.930 | 0.790 | +0.140 | $93 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:45 | 0xaf2383b6… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.896 | 0.790 | +0.106 | $854 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:40 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.310 | +0.050 | $36 | 599m |
| 2026-06-16 21:34 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.370 | 0.310 | +0.060 | $41 | 608m |
| 2026-06-16 21:34 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.310 | +0.070 | $10 | 608m |
| 2026-06-16 21:30 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.370 | 0.300 | +0.070 | $8 | 618m |
| 2026-06-16 21:26 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.300 | +0.130 | $19 | 618m |
| 2026-06-16 21:25 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.460 | 0.310 | +0.150 | $6 | 608m |
| 2026-06-16 21:16 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.300 | +0.090 | $13 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0xf0d5eb1c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.445 | 0.300 | +0.145 | $436 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0xf0d5eb1c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.300 | +0.080 | $144 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0xa6b7ebd5… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.300 | +0.080 | $114 | 627m |