Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 21:55 | 0x8c0b637b… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.910 | 0.790 | +0.120 | $228 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:55 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.958 | 0.900 | +0.058 | $75 | 1065m |
| 2026-06-16 21:54 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.958 | 0.900 | +0.058 | $117 | 1065m |
| 2026-06-16 21:54 | 0xf0ed9e68… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.962 | 0.900 | +0.062 | $962 | 1084m |
| 2026-06-16 21:50 | 0xf0ed9e68… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.920 | 0.790 | +0.130 | $23 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.940 | +0.038 | $469 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.940 | +0.038 | $469 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.950 | 0.790 | +0.160 | $1092 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.986 | 0.940 | +0.046 | $51 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
SELL | 0.180 | 0.310 | -0.130 | $1 | 599m |
| 2026-06-16 21:48 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.978 | 0.940 | +0.038 | $469 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:46 | 0x9a3fa403… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.971 | 0.940 | +0.031 | $4988 | 444m |
| 2026-06-16 21:46 | 0x5b242dc2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.950 | 0.790 | +0.160 | $30 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:46 | 0x5b242dc2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.944 | 0.790 | +0.154 | $25 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:46 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.930 | 0.790 | +0.140 | $93 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:45 | 0xaf2383b6… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.896 | 0.790 | +0.106 | $854 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:40 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.310 | +0.050 | $36 | 599m |
| 2026-06-16 21:34 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.370 | 0.310 | +0.060 | $41 | 608m |
| 2026-06-16 21:34 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.310 | +0.070 | $10 | 608m |
| 2026-06-16 21:30 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.370 | 0.300 | +0.070 | $8 | 618m |
| 2026-06-16 21:26 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.300 | +0.130 | $19 | 618m |
| 2026-06-16 21:25 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.460 | 0.310 | +0.150 | $6 | 608m |
| 2026-06-16 21:16 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.300 | +0.090 | $13 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0xf0d5eb1c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.445 | 0.300 | +0.145 | $436 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0xf0d5eb1c… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.300 | +0.080 | $144 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0xa6b7ebd5… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.300 | +0.080 | $114 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.300 | +0.080 | $27 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:14 | 0x5a218c7a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.300 | +0.080 | $8 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:13 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.370 | 0.300 | +0.070 | $33 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 21:13 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.300 | +0.060 | $54 | 627m |
| 2026-06-16 20:58 | 0xca08d6c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.310 | 0.240 | +0.070 | $1 | 453m |
| 2026-06-16 20:58 | 0xcd9607c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.280 | 0.240 | +0.040 | $22 | 453m |
| 2026-06-16 20:56 | 0xcd9607c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.305 | 0.240 | +0.065 | $31 | 453m |
| 2026-06-16 20:56 | 0xcd9607c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.290 | 0.240 | +0.050 | $7 | 453m |
| 2026-06-16 20:53 | 0xcd9607c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.280 | 0.240 | +0.040 | $5 | 453m |
| 2026-06-16 20:50 | 0xcd9607c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.280 | 0.240 | +0.040 | $17 | 462m |
| 2026-06-16 20:50 | 0xcd9607c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.286 | 0.240 | +0.046 | $29 | 462m |
| 2026-06-16 20:13 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.760 | 0.790 | -0.030 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-16 20:09 | 0x6e4976c2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.290 | +0.070 | $2 | 761m |
| 2026-06-16 20:09 | 0x6e4976c2… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.290 | +0.070 | $99 | 761m |
| 2026-06-16 20:09 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.290 | +0.040 | $16 | 731m |
| 2026-06-16 20:09 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.947 | 0.910 | +0.037 | $758 | 838m |
| 2026-06-16 20:09 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.946 | 0.910 | +0.036 | $210 | 838m |
| 2026-06-16 20:09 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.945 | 0.910 | +0.035 | $48 | 838m |
| 2026-06-16 20:07 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.790 | -0.050 | $26 | 159m |
| 2026-06-16 19:05 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.240 | +0.110 | $70 | 565m |
| 2026-06-16 19:05 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.240 | +0.110 | $35 | 565m |
| 2026-06-16 19:05 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.240 | +0.110 | $82 | 565m |
| 2026-06-16 18:31 | 0xfa323e40… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.270 | +0.080 | $57 | 863m |