Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 20:09 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.946 | 0.910 | +0.036 | $210 | 838m |
| 2026-06-16 20:09 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.945 | 0.910 | +0.035 | $48 | 838m |
| 2026-06-16 20:07 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.790 | -0.050 | $26 | 159m |
| 2026-06-16 19:05 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.240 | +0.110 | $70 | 565m |
| 2026-06-16 19:05 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.240 | +0.110 | $35 | 565m |
| 2026-06-16 19:05 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.240 | +0.110 | $82 | 565m |
| 2026-06-16 18:31 | 0xfa323e40… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.270 | +0.080 | $57 | 863m |
| 2026-06-16 18:18 | 0x4bf45919… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.930 | 0.890 | +0.040 | $94 | 950m |
| 2026-06-16 18:13 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.270 | +0.060 | $148 | 852m |
| 2026-06-16 18:13 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.340 | 0.270 | +0.070 | $142 | 852m |
| 2026-06-16 18:13 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.840 | 0.790 | +0.050 | $168 | 959m |
| 2026-06-16 18:13 | 0xd426adbc… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.270 | +0.060 | $293 | 852m |
| 2026-06-16 18:13 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.930 | 0.890 | +0.040 | $152 | 959m |
| 2026-06-16 18:13 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.310 | 0.270 | +0.040 | $69 | 205m |
| 2026-06-16 18:13 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.930 | 0.890 | +0.040 | $34 | 959m |
| 2026-06-16 18:13 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.927 | 0.890 | +0.037 | $47 | 959m |
| 2026-06-16 18:00 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.937 | 0.890 | +0.047 | $937 | 969m |
| 2026-06-16 17:46 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.860 | 0.790 | +0.070 | $460 | 978m |
| 2026-06-16 17:46 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.270 | +0.110 | $619 | 901m |
| 2026-06-16 17:46 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $25 | 901m |
| 2026-06-16 17:46 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.959 | 0.890 | +0.069 | $96 | 1317m |
| 2026-06-16 17:46 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.370 | 0.270 | +0.100 | $47 | 901m |
| 2026-06-16 17:40 | 0x9def9524… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.290 | 0.250 | +0.040 | $58 | 4m |
| 2026-06-16 17:39 | 0x9def9524… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.290 | 0.250 | +0.040 | $1 | 7m |
| 2026-06-16 17:34 | 0x9def9524… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.290 | 0.250 | +0.040 | $23 | 17m |
| 2026-06-16 17:30 | 0x9def9524… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.290 | 0.250 | +0.040 | $58 | 17m |
| 2026-06-16 17:20 | 0x9def9524… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.290 | 0.250 | +0.040 | $0 | 27m |
| 2026-06-16 17:01 | 0x9def9524… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.290 | 0.250 | +0.040 | $139 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 16:41 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.240 | +0.120 | $19 | — |
| 2026-06-16 16:40 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.240 | +0.110 | $18 | — |
| 2026-06-16 16:40 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.240 | +0.110 | $44 | — |
| 2026-06-16 16:40 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.950 | 0.890 | +0.060 | $808 | 1053m |
| 2026-06-16 16:11 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.240 | +0.090 | $91 | 974m |
| 2026-06-16 16:07 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.240 | +0.090 | $1 | 974m |
| 2026-06-16 16:05 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.923 | 0.860 | +0.063 | $5 | 1081m |
| 2026-06-16 16:04 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.240 | +0.090 | $10 | 974m |
| 2026-06-16 16:03 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.240 | +0.090 | $2 | 974m |
| 2026-06-16 16:00 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.240 | +0.090 | $5 | 984m |
| 2026-06-16 15:58 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.240 | +0.090 | $1 | 984m |
| 2026-06-16 15:22 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.620 | -0.280 | $149 | 1678m |
| 2026-06-16 15:22 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.935 | 0.860 | +0.075 | $68 | 1128m |
| 2026-06-16 15:22 | 0xc798197a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.240 | +0.120 | $10 | 1050m |
| 2026-06-16 15:19 | 0x870535b3… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.620 | +0.050 | $67 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0xc798197a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.240 | +0.120 | $8 | 1050m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.620 | +0.060 | $82 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.620 | +0.060 | $3 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0x73653992… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.620 | +0.060 | $148 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.935 | 0.860 | +0.075 | $144 | 1128m |
| 2026-06-16 15:14 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.935 | 0.860 | +0.075 | $4 | 1137m |
| 2026-06-16 15:13 | 0xc798197a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.240 | +0.120 | $6 | 1060m |