Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0xc798197a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.240 | +0.120 | $8 | 1050m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.620 | +0.060 | $82 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.620 | +0.060 | $3 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0x73653992… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.620 | +0.060 | $148 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 15:17 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.935 | 0.860 | +0.075 | $144 | 1128m |
| 2026-06-16 15:14 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.935 | 0.860 | +0.075 | $4 | 1137m |
| 2026-06-16 15:13 | 0xc798197a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.240 | +0.120 | $6 | 1060m |
| 2026-06-16 15:06 | 0x73653992… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.640 | +0.040 | $13 | 62m |
| 2026-06-16 15:06 | 0xc798197a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.240 | +0.120 | $2 | 1069m |
| 2026-06-16 15:03 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.640 | +0.050 | $8 | 102m |
| 2026-06-16 15:02 | 0x73653992… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.640 | +0.040 | $859 | 62m |
| 2026-06-16 14:35 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $156 | 1097m |
| 2026-06-16 14:35 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $461 | 1097m |
| 2026-06-16 14:34 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $24 | 1175m |
| 2026-06-16 14:34 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $3 | 1097m |
| 2026-06-16 14:34 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $160 | 1097m |
| 2026-06-16 14:34 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.937 | 0.860 | +0.077 | $187 | 1175m |
| 2026-06-16 14:34 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.940 | 0.860 | +0.080 | $470 | 1175m |
| 2026-06-16 14:34 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.840 | 0.790 | +0.050 | $466 | 1175m |
| 2026-06-16 14:24 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.630 | +0.050 | $11 | 97m |
| 2026-06-16 14:05 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.630 | +0.050 | $43 | 117m |
| 2026-06-16 14:02 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.680 | 0.630 | +0.050 | $86 | 117m |
| 2026-06-16 13:58 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.790 | +0.040 | $71 | 1203m |
| 2026-06-13 04:41 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.160 | 0.202 | -0.042 | $12 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 21:49 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.033 | 0.064 | -0.031 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 21:47 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.033 | 0.064 | -0.031 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 19:44 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXIRANEMBASSY-27
will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026 |
BUY | 0.120 | 0.084 | +0.036 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-12 14:49 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.209 | -0.059 | $27 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 14:02 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.209 | -0.059 | $2 | 2m |
| 2026-06-12 13:12 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.190 | -0.040 | $8 | 52m |
| 2026-06-12 12:59 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.039 | 0.078 | -0.039 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 12:09 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.190 | -0.040 | $11 | 117m |
| 2026-06-12 12:09 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.190 | -0.040 | $8 | 117m |
| 2026-06-12 11:57 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01
will-saudi-arabia-join-the-abraham-accords-before-2027 Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.160 | -0.030 | $26 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 11:57 | 0xe23b2940… | L1 |
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01
will-saudi-arabia-join-the-abraham-accords-before-2027 Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.160 | -0.040 | $4 | 27m |
| 2026-06-12 11:03 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.042 | 0.078 | -0.036 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 11:03 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.042 | 0.078 | -0.036 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 10:33 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026 Will US annex any territory in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 09:32 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $36 | — |
| 2026-06-12 09:32 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $10 | — |
| 2026-06-12 09:31 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $18 | — |
| 2026-06-12 09:30 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-12 09:29 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-12 09:28 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-12 08:25 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.210 | -0.060 | $72 | 10m |
| 2026-06-12 08:03 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.210 | -0.060 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 08:03 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.210 | -0.060 | $8 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 00:34 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.200 | -0.060 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-11 22:33 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.196 | -0.056 | $12 | 102m |
| 2026-06-11 22:32 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.196 | -0.056 | $3 | 129m |