Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 19:15 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.280 | +0.380 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 19:03 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.280 | +0.380 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 18:51 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.110 | 0.178 | -0.068 | $26 | 1441m |
| 2026-06-05 18:48 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.110 | 0.178 | -0.068 | $5 | 1817m |
| 2026-06-05 18:20 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.280 | +0.380 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 18:20 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.280 | +0.380 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 18:11 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.280 | +0.380 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 18:10 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.280 | +0.370 | $205 | — |
| 2026-06-05 17:36 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.110 | 0.174 | -0.064 | $4 | 1877m |
| 2026-06-05 17:25 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.270 | +0.390 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 17:05 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.270 | +0.390 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 17:05 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.270 | +0.390 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 16:55 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.270 | +0.390 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 16:55 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.270 | +0.390 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 16:55 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.270 | +0.390 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 16:45 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.260 | +0.400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 16:35 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.260 | +0.400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 16:35 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.260 | +0.400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 15:39 | 0x5b242dc2… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.270 | +0.390 | $51 | — |
| 2026-06-05 15:27 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.110 | 0.174 | -0.064 | $2 | 1648m |
| 2026-06-05 15:19 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.160 | -0.040 | $12 | 97m |
| 2026-06-05 14:46 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.110 | 0.179 | -0.069 | $2 | 1691m |
| 2026-06-05 14:44 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXMUSKTRILLION-27
elon-musk-trillionaire-before-2027 Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? |
BUY | 0.921 | 0.880 | +0.041 | $28 | — |
| 2026-06-05 13:58 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.270 | +0.080 | $271 | — |
| 2026-06-05 13:30 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.280 | +0.370 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-05 13:29 | 0x08458f7e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.280 | +0.370 | $289 | — |
| 2026-06-05 13:29 | 0x993c0725… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.350 | 0.280 | +0.070 | $350 | — |
| 2026-06-05 12:24 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.170 | -0.050 | $8 | 1689m |
| 2026-06-05 12:24 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.200 | -0.060 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-06-05 11:31 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.170 | -0.050 | $1 | 1730m |
| 2026-06-05 11:29 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.170 | -0.050 | $3 | 1730m |
| 2026-06-05 11:17 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.640 | +0.100 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-05 11:17 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.640 | +0.100 | $17 | — |
| 2026-06-05 10:48 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.260 | +0.400 | $1320 | — |
| 2026-06-05 09:30 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.270 | +0.390 | $394 | — |
| 2026-06-05 08:35 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 08:35 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 08:15 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 08:14 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $22 | — |
| 2026-06-05 08:12 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-05 07:43 | 0xe8c5827d… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.365 | 0.250 | +0.115 | $600 | — |
| 2026-06-05 07:37 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $650 | — |
| 2026-06-05 07:19 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $1950 | — |
| 2026-06-05 07:18 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $650 | — |
| 2026-06-05 07:15 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 07:15 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.250 | +0.400 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 07:05 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.270 | +0.380 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 06:55 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.270 | +0.380 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-05 06:49 | 0x2ed8f7a1… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.270 | +0.090 | $180 | — |
| 2026-06-05 06:45 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.270 | +0.380 | $1 | — |