Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 00:40 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.179 | -0.039 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-22 00:26 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.350 | +0.080 | $39 | 62m |
| 2026-06-22 00:22 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.350 | +0.080 | $13 | 62m |
| 2026-06-22 00:20 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.350 | +0.080 | $1 | 77m |
| 2026-06-22 00:04 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.188 | -0.048 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 23:56 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.500 | +0.030 | $56 | 27m |
| 2026-06-21 23:50 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.188 | -0.048 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 23:43 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.500 | +0.040 | $13 | 37m |
| 2026-06-21 23:43 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.500 | +0.040 | $2 | 37m |
| 2026-06-21 23:43 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.500 | +0.040 | $83 | 37m |
| 2026-06-21 23:33 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.510 | -0.050 | $3 | 22m |
| 2026-06-21 23:31 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.510 | -0.050 | $2 | 22m |
| 2026-06-21 23:21 | 0xcd1d7d84… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.589 | 0.500 | +0.089 | $610 | 62m |
| 2026-06-21 23:17 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.450 | 0.490 | -0.040 | $7 | 52m |
| 2026-06-21 23:17 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.500 | +0.050 | $28 | 62m |
| 2026-06-21 23:12 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.530 | -0.070 | $48 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 23:12 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.530 | -0.090 | $45 | 62m |
| 2026-06-21 23:05 | 0xb687f004… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.188 | -0.048 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-21 23:04 | 0xcc2620f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.930 | -0.040 | $549 | — |
| 2026-06-21 22:54 | 0xcc2620f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.930 | -0.040 | $53 | — |
| 2026-06-21 22:47 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.530 | 0.570 | -0.040 | $0 | 11m |
| 2026-06-21 22:29 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.580 | -0.060 | $0 | 37m |
| 2026-06-21 22:29 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.520 | 0.580 | -0.060 | $52 | 37m |
| 2026-06-21 22:24 | 0xcc2620f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.920 | -0.030 | $222 | — |
| 2026-06-21 22:13 | 0xcc2620f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.921 | -0.031 | $89 | — |
| 2026-06-21 22:13 | 0xcc2620f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.921 | -0.031 | $89 | — |
| 2026-06-21 22:13 | 0xcc2620f9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.921 | -0.031 | $1187 | — |
| 2026-06-21 22:07 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.922 | -0.032 | $1216 | — |
| 2026-06-21 22:00 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.500 | 0.570 | -0.070 | $0 | 67m |
| 2026-06-21 22:00 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.570 | -0.060 | $51 | 67m |
| 2026-06-21 21:58 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.923 | -0.043 | $48 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:57 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.923 | -0.043 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:56 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.923 | -0.043 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:56 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.923 | -0.043 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:56 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.923 | -0.043 | $290 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:55 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.923 | -0.043 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:51 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.922 | -0.042 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:50 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.922 | -0.042 | $88 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:45 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.922 | -0.042 | $117 | — |
| 2026-06-21 21:44 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:40 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $49 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:39 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:39 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:37 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.925 | -0.045 | $88 | 92m |
| 2026-06-21 21:33 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.927 | -0.047 | $5 | 102m |
| 2026-06-21 21:29 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.927 | -0.047 | $6 | 102m |
| 2026-06-21 21:28 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.927 | -0.047 | $188 | 102m |
| 2026-06-21 21:04 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.942 | -0.032 | $172 | 1m |