Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 08:18 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.330 | +0.270 | $258 | 1909m |
| 2026-06-02 07:51 | 0xd3a72382… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
will-tucker-carlson-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
BUY | 0.090 | 0.056 | +0.034 | $54 | — |
| 2026-06-02 06:25 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.340 | +0.260 | $1 | 2019m |
| 2026-06-02 06:05 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.340 | +0.260 | $1 | 2038m |
| 2026-06-02 04:10 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.330 | +0.270 | $600 | 2152m |
| 2026-06-02 03:04 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01
will-gamestop-acquire-ebay Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.180 | -0.030 | $53 | 1m |
| 2026-06-02 02:15 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.330 | +0.270 | $1 | 2273m |
| 2026-06-02 00:44 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.330 | +0.060 | $3 | 2365m |
| 2026-06-02 00:42 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.330 | +0.060 | $8 | 2365m |
| 2026-06-01 22:30 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.330 | +0.270 | $199 | 2497m |
| 2026-06-01 22:15 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.340 | +0.260 | $1 | 2507m |
| 2026-06-01 20:14 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.340 | +0.050 | $3 | 2631m |
| 2026-06-01 19:47 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.340 | +0.050 | $3 | 2660m |
| 2026-06-01 19:37 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.340 | +0.260 | $600 | 2668m |
| 2026-06-01 19:07 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.350 | +0.250 | $549 | 2703m |
| 2026-06-01 18:49 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXACQANNOUNCEEBAY-27JAN01-JAN01
will-gamestop-acquire-ebay Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.180 | -0.030 | $30 | 17m |
| 2026-06-01 17:31 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.330 | +0.060 | $390 | 2789m |
| 2026-06-01 17:31 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.330 | +0.280 | $610 | 2789m |
| 2026-06-01 17:17 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.340 | +0.050 | $3 | 2809m |
| 2026-06-01 17:07 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.350 | +0.040 | $155 | 2817m |
| 2026-06-01 17:07 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.350 | +0.260 | $242 | 2817m |
| 2026-06-01 17:01 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.350 | +0.040 | $3 | 2826m |
| 2026-06-01 16:30 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.350 | +0.040 | $14 | 2853m |
| 2026-06-01 16:23 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.350 | +0.250 | $52 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:23 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.350 | +0.040 | $3 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:22 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.350 | +0.040 | $1 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:22 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.350 | +0.250 | $51 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:21 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.350 | +0.250 | $13 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:21 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.350 | +0.040 | $0 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:21 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.350 | +0.250 | $1084 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:21 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.400 | 0.350 | +0.050 | $889 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:20 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.350 | +0.040 | $0 | 2862m |
| 2026-06-01 16:14 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.350 | +0.040 | $9 | 2871m |
| 2026-06-01 15:53 | 0xa66790e2… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.170 | -0.030 | $25 | 1m |
| 2026-06-01 15:00 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.170 | -0.030 | $270 | 1m |
| 2026-06-01 13:58 | 0x56d9a144… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.400 | 0.350 | +0.050 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-01 13:25 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.340 | +0.270 | $243 | — |
| 2026-06-01 13:25 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.340 | +0.260 | $125 | — |
| 2026-06-01 10:55 | 0x93511d72… | L1 |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T20
will-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31 |
BUY | 0.987 | 0.870 | +0.117 | $95 | 9m |
| 2026-06-01 10:55 | 0x93511d72… | L1 |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T20
will-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31 |
BUY | 0.987 | 0.870 | +0.117 | $987 | 9m |
| 2026-06-01 10:54 | 0x93511d72… | L1 |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T20
will-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31 |
BUY | 0.987 | 0.870 | +0.117 | $494 | 9m |
| 2026-06-01 10:50 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.380 | +0.220 | $515 | 2832m |
| 2026-06-01 10:50 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.380 | +0.220 | $600 | 2843m |
| 2026-06-01 10:50 | 0x93511d72… | L1 |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T20
will-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31 |
BUY | 0.987 | 0.870 | +0.117 | $584 | 22m |
| 2026-06-01 10:49 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.380 | +0.220 | $38 | 2843m |
| 2026-06-01 10:48 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.380 | +0.220 | $15 | 2843m |
| 2026-06-01 10:46 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31 US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.540 | 0.260 | +0.280 | $32 | 1598m |
| 2026-06-01 10:46 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.380 | +0.220 | $15 | 2843m |
| 2026-06-01 10:45 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.380 | +0.220 | $16 | 2843m |
| 2026-06-01 10:45 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.380 | +0.220 | $3 | 2843m |