Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 11:41 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T40
will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31 Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.430 | +0.400 | $10 | 603m |
| 2026-05-29 11:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26MAY31-T40
will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31 Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.430 | +0.400 | $405 | 603m |
| 2026-05-29 10:25 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN
will-trump-agree-to-iranian-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31 |
SELL | 0.025 | 0.081 | -0.056 | $0 | 97m |
| 2026-05-29 09:46 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.800 | 0.680 | +0.120 | $48 | 124m |
| 2026-05-29 09:23 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN
will-trump-agree-to-iranian-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31 |
SELL | 0.029 | 0.070 | -0.041 | $1 | 179m |
| 2026-05-29 08:15 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.720 | 0.600 | +0.120 | $43 | 637m |
| 2026-05-29 08:14 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.290 | 0.600 | -0.310 | $17 | — |
| 2026-05-29 08:09 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.058 | -0.035 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-29 08:03 | 0x3e4c0eb7… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.298 | 0.600 | -0.302 | $2800 | — |
| 2026-05-29 07:59 | 0x4478d7bd… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260615
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15 |
BUY | 0.160 | 0.110 | +0.050 | $2856 | — |
| 2026-05-29 07:56 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.600 | -0.210 | $184 | 1361m |
| 2026-05-29 07:56 | 0x4478d7bd… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260615
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15 |
BUY | 0.150 | 0.110 | +0.040 | $874 | — |
| 2026-05-29 07:52 | 0xa3ee2ddf… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.780 | 0.680 | +0.100 | $410 | 238m |
| 2026-05-29 07:52 | 0x5235578e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.600 | -0.180 | $413 | 1361m |
| 2026-05-29 07:17 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.480 | -0.050 | $16 | 10m |
| 2026-05-29 07:13 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.480 | -0.050 | $300 | 10m |
| 2026-05-29 06:48 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.520 | -0.090 | $3 | 1428m |
| 2026-05-29 06:43 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.520 | -0.090 | $42 | 1436m |
| 2026-05-29 05:42 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-29 05:36 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-29 05:34 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.490 | -0.060 | $53 | 159m |
| 2026-05-29 05:12 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $9 | — |
| 2026-05-29 04:56 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-29 03:37 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-29 03:12 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-29 01:36 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-29 01:31 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-29 01:10 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-29 01:04 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.240 | +0.310 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-29 00:47 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.250 | +0.300 | $271 | — |
| 2026-05-29 00:40 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-29 00:26 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.470 | -0.040 | $2 | 450m |
| 2026-05-29 00:22 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $3 | 4m |
| 2026-05-29 00:20 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $22 | 1m |
| 2026-05-29 00:20 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $43 | 1m |
| 2026-05-29 00:13 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $12 | 1m |
| 2026-05-29 00:09 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $12 | 1m |
| 2026-05-29 00:09 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $5 | 4m |
| 2026-05-28 23:50 | 0xa6676646… | L1 |
KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA
will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
SELL | 0.023 | 0.056 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-28 23:30 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.540 | -0.120 | $1 | 17m |
| 2026-05-28 23:30 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.540 | -0.120 | $1 | 17m |
| 2026-05-28 23:27 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.540 | -0.120 | $8 | 17m |
| 2026-05-28 23:05 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.410 | 0.270 | +0.140 | $41 | — |
| 2026-05-28 22:38 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.530 | -0.110 | $6 | 67m |
| 2026-05-28 22:36 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.530 | -0.110 | $2 | 67m |
| 2026-05-28 22:32 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.530 | -0.110 | $1 | 67m |
| 2026-05-28 22:21 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.540 | -0.120 | $2 | 89m |
| 2026-05-28 22:20 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.540 | -0.120 | $2 | 87m |
| 2026-05-28 22:11 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.270 | +0.300 | $58 | — |
| 2026-05-28 22:05 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.530 | -0.110 | $279 | 92m |