Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 12:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.655 | -0.313 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 09:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 09:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-25 08:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-25 07:47 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 07:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.654 | -0.313 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 07:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.655 | -0.314 | $11 | — |
| 2026-05-25 06:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.655 | -0.313 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 06:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.656 | -0.314 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 06:05 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.343 | 0.655 | -0.312 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-25 05:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 04:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 04:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 04:18 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-25 04:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 03:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:43 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $34 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:18 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.656 | -0.316 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-25 02:04 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.340 | 0.650 | -0.310 | $34 | — |
| 2026-05-24 23:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $21 | — |
| 2026-05-24 23:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-24 23:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $19 | — |
| 2026-05-24 22:53 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 22:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.341 | 0.656 | -0.315 | $54 | — |
| 2026-05-24 20:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.342 | 0.656 | -0.314 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 20:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.343 | 0.656 | -0.313 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 20:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.338 | 0.656 | -0.318 | $68 | — |
| 2026-05-24 19:04 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 19:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:42 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:23 | 0x6f679c4a… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.260 | +0.100 | $130 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:14 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $0 | 3m |
| 2026-05-24 17:14 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $1 | 62m |
| 2026-05-24 16:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.658 | -0.319 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 16:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.658 | -0.319 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-24 16:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $0 | 136m |