Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 15:56 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $0 | 142m |
| 2026-05-24 15:43 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.658 | -0.319 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 15:33 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.650 | -0.300 | $35 | — |
| 2026-05-24 15:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $0 | 171m |
| 2026-05-24 15:07 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.310 | 0.650 | -0.340 | $11 | — |
| 2026-05-24 10:24 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.353 | 0.644 | -0.291 | $349 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:57 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-898-927 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
SELL | 0.100 | 0.130 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.352 | 0.645 | -0.293 | $61 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.352 | 0.645 | -0.293 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.352 | 0.645 | -0.293 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-898-927 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
SELL | 0.100 | 0.130 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.352 | 0.646 | -0.294 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:15 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.351 | 0.646 | -0.295 | $70 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:15 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.346 | 0.646 | -0.300 | $69 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:13 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:06 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:06 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-898-927 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
SELL | 0.100 | 0.130 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:10 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.348 | 0.640 | -0.292 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-24 07:08 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:04 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.348 | 0.640 | -0.292 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 06:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:16 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:08 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:05 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 05:42 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.319 | 0.640 | -0.321 | $56 | — |
| 2026-05-24 05:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.319 | 0.640 | -0.321 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 04:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 04:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.319 | 0.640 | -0.321 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-24 04:20 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 03:20 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 03:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 02:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $8 | 944m |
| 2026-05-24 02:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 02:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 02:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 02:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 01:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.072 | 0.110 | -0.038 | $1 | 2m |
| 2026-05-24 01:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.071 | 0.110 | -0.039 | $13 | 22m |
| 2026-05-24 00:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.071 | 0.110 | -0.039 | $1 | 27m |
| 2026-05-24 00:27 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.130 | 0.097 | +0.033 | $6 | 22m |
| 2026-05-24 00:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.071 | 0.110 | -0.039 | $0 | 57m |
| 2026-05-24 00:27 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.130 | 0.097 | +0.033 | $1 | 22m |
| 2026-05-23 18:38 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.147 | 0.096 | +0.051 | $1470 | 368m |