Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 20:22 | 0xe47439f4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.734 | 0.680 | +0.054 | $5053 | 820m |
| 2026-06-20 20:21 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.760 | 0.830 | -0.070 | $19 | 1726m |
| 2026-06-20 15:12 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.946 | -0.036 | $736 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 15:12 | 0x66e7ce01… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.945 | -0.035 | $18 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 15:11 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.910 | 0.946 | -0.036 | $118 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 15:01 | 0x40cfb294… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.930 | -0.030 | $1800 | 6m |
| 2026-06-20 14:45 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $473 | 72m |
| 2026-06-20 14:44 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:43 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $128 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:38 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $25 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:38 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.908 | -0.048 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:28 | 0xd6ddc655… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.850 | 0.880 | -0.030 | $237 | 1m |
| 2026-06-20 14:20 | 0x5b6331e7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.690 | +0.050 | $5 | 1181m |
| 2026-06-20 14:20 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.927 | -0.047 | $830 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:20 | 0xd6ddc655… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.872 | 0.927 | -0.055 | $260 | — |
| 2026-06-20 14:19 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.927 | -0.037 | $604 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:37 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.930 | -0.050 | $3286 | 42m |
| 2026-06-20 13:36 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.930 | -0.050 | $1414 | 42m |
| 2026-06-20 13:36 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.930 | -0.050 | $345 | 42m |
| 2026-06-20 13:34 | 0x409367ef… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.930 | -0.050 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:34 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.930 | -0.030 | $59 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:34 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.930 | -0.030 | $194 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:34 | 0x4569ddcf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.930 | -0.060 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:34 | 0x409367ef… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.870 | 0.930 | -0.060 | $5 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:33 | 0x4569ddcf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.930 | -0.070 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:33 | 0x4569ddcf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.930 | -0.070 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:33 | 0x409367ef… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.930 | -0.070 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:33 | 0x409367ef… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.860 | 0.930 | -0.070 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:32 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.930 | -0.030 | $212 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:32 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.930 | -0.030 | $14 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:32 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.890 | 0.929 | -0.039 | $27 | 42m |
| 2026-06-20 13:32 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.930 | -0.030 | $1561 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:32 | 0x5ccf62ac… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.900 | 0.930 | -0.030 | $1793 | — |
| 2026-06-20 13:30 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.928 | -0.048 | $14 | 52m |
| 2026-06-20 13:30 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.928 | -0.048 | $12 | 52m |
| 2026-06-20 13:29 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.880 | 0.928 | -0.048 | $44 | 52m |
| 2026-06-20 13:27 | 0xd8d5289c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.830 | 0.900 | -0.070 | $249 | 57m |
| 2026-06-20 13:27 | 0xed19489c… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.820 | 0.920 | -0.100 | $33 | 67m |
| 2026-06-20 13:25 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.730 | 0.690 | +0.040 | $34 | 1231m |
| 2026-06-20 13:25 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.730 | 0.690 | +0.040 | $255 | 1231m |
| 2026-06-20 13:25 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.750 | 0.690 | +0.060 | $45 | 1231m |
| 2026-06-20 13:25 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.928 | -0.128 | $1 | 401m |
| 2026-06-20 13:25 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.900 | -0.100 | $140 | 401m |
| 2026-06-20 13:25 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.928 | -0.128 | $21 | 401m |
| 2026-06-20 13:24 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.800 | 0.928 | -0.128 | $31 | 401m |
| 2026-06-20 13:23 | 0xce71bed9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.900 | -0.160 | $3057 | 2369m |
| 2026-06-20 13:23 | 0xce71bed9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.900 | -0.160 | $100 | 2369m |
| 2026-06-20 13:22 | 0xce71bed9… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.900 | -0.160 | $543 | 2369m |
| 2026-06-20 13:22 | 0xd24b9555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.900 | -0.160 | $410 | 2369m |
| 2026-06-20 13:22 | 0xd24b9555… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 Starmer out by June 30, 2026? |
SELL | 0.740 | 0.900 | -0.160 | $204 | 2369m |