Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 06:15 | 0xe3e4bded… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.520 | -0.140 | $44 | 52m |
| 2026-06-18 06:07 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.520 | -0.140 | $35 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 06:06 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.520 | -0.120 | $2 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 06:02 | 0x34379b9a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.520 | +0.030 | $2 | 27m |
| 2026-06-18 06:02 | 0x34379b9a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.550 | 0.520 | +0.030 | $3 | 27m |
| 2026-06-18 05:54 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.520 | -0.040 | $1 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 05:52 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.480 | 0.520 | -0.040 | $27 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 05:48 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.470 | 0.520 | -0.050 | $8 | 72m |
| 2026-06-18 05:41 | 0xca08d6c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.420 | +0.160 | $4 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 05:41 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.420 | +0.110 | $282 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 05:41 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.530 | 0.420 | +0.110 | $5 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.560 | 0.420 | +0.140 | $2 | 47m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $37 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.480 | -0.060 | $7 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $82 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0xa6dcc89a… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $60 | 77m |
| 2026-06-18 05:38 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.480 | -0.070 | $7 | 67m |
| 2026-06-18 04:52 | 0x8db4f2bc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.037 | 0.071 | -0.034 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-18 04:30 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.960 | +0.038 | $998 | 22m |
| 2026-06-18 04:24 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $13972 | 32m |
| 2026-06-18 04:20 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.999 | 0.870 | +0.129 | $1909 | 22m |
| 2026-06-18 04:20 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.900 | +0.098 | $20 | 32m |
| 2026-06-18 04:12 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.780 | +0.218 | $499 | 37m |
| 2026-06-18 04:11 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.780 | +0.218 | $4546 | 37m |
| 2026-06-18 04:11 | 0xc682d794… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.200 | -0.060 | $251 | 62m |
| 2026-06-18 04:09 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.780 | +0.218 | $19848 | 37m |
| 2026-06-18 04:08 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.780 | +0.218 | $5045 | 37m |
| 2026-06-18 04:02 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $327 | — |
| 2026-06-18 03:49 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $499 | — |
| 2026-06-18 03:23 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.999 | 0.860 | +0.139 | $34965 | 77m |
| 2026-06-18 03:18 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.690 | +0.308 | $499 | — |
| 2026-06-18 03:01 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.690 | +0.308 | $499 | — |
| 2026-06-18 03:00 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.690 | +0.308 | $15 | — |
| 2026-06-18 02:56 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.999 | 0.860 | +0.139 | $25 | 107m |
| 2026-06-18 02:47 | 0xaf15bf51… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.310 | 0.260 | +0.050 | $4 | 851m |
| 2026-06-18 02:46 | 0x5b6331e7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.627 | 0.420 | +0.207 | $29 | 281m |
| 2026-06-18 02:10 | 0xf8855dad… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.320 | 0.240 | +0.080 | $6 | 899m |
| 2026-06-18 02:10 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.300 | 0.230 | +0.070 | $13 | 828m |
| 2026-06-18 02:10 | 0x44c1dfe4… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.293 | 0.230 | +0.063 | $1193 | 828m |
| 2026-06-18 02:10 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.310 | 0.230 | +0.080 | $8 | 899m |
| 2026-06-18 02:04 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.720 | +0.278 | $0 | 164m |
| 2026-06-18 02:03 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.720 | +0.278 | $4 | 164m |
| 2026-06-18 02:00 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-18 02:00 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-18 02:00 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.999 | 0.860 | +0.139 | $999 | 164m |
| 2026-06-18 01:57 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $0 | — |
| 2026-06-18 01:57 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.710 | +0.288 | $103 | — |
| 2026-06-18 01:56 | 0xdf17f4a8… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.999 | 0.860 | +0.139 | $1835 | 164m |
| 2026-06-18 01:51 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.260 | 0.210 | +0.050 | $1 | 42m |
| 2026-06-18 01:50 | 0xfe726a6e… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.260 | 0.210 | +0.050 | $1 | 42m |