Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 13:00 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $0 | 1023m |
| 2026-06-17 12:50 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.993 | 0.680 | +0.313 | $21 | 484m |
| 2026-06-17 12:49 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.110 | 0.166 | -0.056 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:46 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.110 | 0.155 | -0.045 | $6 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:44 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.560 | -0.140 | $9 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:44 | 0x15f7ddbc… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.997 | 0.900 | +0.097 | $10066 | 956m |
| 2026-06-17 12:43 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $0 | 1042m |
| 2026-06-17 12:43 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $0 | 1042m |
| 2026-06-17 12:43 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $0 | 1042m |
| 2026-06-17 12:41 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.156 | -0.066 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:41 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.156 | -0.066 | $10 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:41 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.156 | -0.066 | $7 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:41 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.156 | -0.066 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:41 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.156 | -0.066 | $3 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:41 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $0 | 1042m |
| 2026-06-17 12:41 | 0x9495d622… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.156 | -0.066 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:39 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $0 | 1052m |
| 2026-06-17 12:39 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $1 | 1052m |
| 2026-06-17 12:39 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $0 | 1052m |
| 2026-06-17 12:36 | 0x5a218c7a… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.996 | 0.900 | +0.096 | $797 | 966m |
| 2026-06-17 12:35 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.986 | 0.670 | +0.316 | $95 | 504m |
| 2026-06-17 12:35 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.988 | 0.820 | +0.168 | $5 | 493m |
| 2026-06-17 12:33 | 0xd5b97d08… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUN20
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-june-22-20260613193829178-738-167-332-255 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.120 | +0.050 | $1 | 1052m |
| 2026-06-17 12:33 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.998 | 0.820 | +0.178 | $6 | 493m |
| 2026-06-17 12:32 | 0xa9f2d6b4… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.985 | 0.670 | +0.315 | $2 | 504m |
| 2026-06-17 12:32 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.670 | +0.320 | $937 | 504m |
| 2026-06-17 12:31 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.996 | 0.820 | +0.176 | $3672 | 493m |
| 2026-06-17 12:30 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.670 | +0.320 | $1969 | 504m |
| 2026-06-17 12:29 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.670 | +0.320 | $4984 | 513m |
| 2026-06-17 12:29 | 0xa9f2d6b4… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.992 | 0.670 | +0.322 | $2500 | 513m |
| 2026-06-17 12:25 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.993 | 0.670 | +0.323 | $733 | 513m |
| 2026-06-17 12:25 | 0x93a93d84… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.990 | 0.670 | +0.320 | $483 | 513m |
| 2026-06-17 12:24 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.207 | -0.057 | $8 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 12:24 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.207 | -0.057 | $8 | 2m |
| 2026-06-17 12:22 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.560 | -0.130 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:17 | 0x645a9173… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.560 | +0.050 | $1 | 404m |
| 2026-06-17 12:16 | 0x215adbb6… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.560 | -0.160 | $11 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:10 | 0x0778f428… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.972 | 0.670 | +0.302 | $61 | 523m |
| 2026-06-17 12:08 | 0xd8e5d96b… | L2 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.996 | 0.710 | +0.286 | $3000 | 533m |
| 2026-06-17 12:08 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.510 | 0.560 | -0.050 | $10 | — |
| 2026-06-17 12:07 | 0x0778f428… | L2 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.985 | 0.710 | +0.275 | $12913 | 533m |
| 2026-06-17 12:07 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.198 | -0.048 | $4 | 22m |
| 2026-06-17 12:07 | 0x2598ea80… | L2 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.981 | 0.710 | +0.271 | $4386 | 533m |
| 2026-06-17 12:06 | 0x3d1487b9… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.981 | 0.710 | +0.271 | $490 | 533m |