Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $16 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $1 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $15 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:54 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.882 | 0.780 | +0.102 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:53 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.650 | 0.710 | -0.060 | $41 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:52 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.881 | 0.780 | +0.101 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:50 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.210 | 0.249 | -0.039 | $5 | 32m |
| 2026-06-16 23:48 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.710 | -0.050 | $36 | 410m |
| 2026-06-16 23:45 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $15 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:39 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.710 | -0.050 | $29 | 419m |
| 2026-06-16 23:38 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.400 | 0.290 | +0.110 | $10 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:37 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.950 | 0.780 | +0.170 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:37 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.950 | 0.780 | +0.170 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:37 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.969 | 0.880 | +0.089 | $194 | 991m |
| 2026-06-16 23:37 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.950 | 0.780 | +0.170 | $8 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:32 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.900 | 0.780 | +0.120 | $0 | 642m |
| 2026-06-16 23:31 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.890 | 0.780 | +0.110 | $0 | 642m |
| 2026-06-16 23:31 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.890 | 0.780 | +0.110 | $0 | 642m |
| 2026-06-16 23:31 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.890 | 0.780 | +0.110 | $0 | 642m |
| 2026-06-16 23:31 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.890 | 0.780 | +0.110 | $0 | 642m |
| 2026-06-16 23:24 | 0xca08d6c4… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.658 | 0.710 | -0.052 | $5 | 428m |
| 2026-06-16 23:24 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.670 | 0.710 | -0.040 | $35 | 42m |
| 2026-06-16 23:21 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.670 | 0.710 | -0.040 | $67 | 52m |
| 2026-06-16 23:21 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.710 | -0.050 | $66 | 438m |
| 2026-06-16 23:21 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.710 | -0.050 | $118 | 438m |
| 2026-06-16 23:21 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.830 | 0.780 | +0.050 | $8 | 574m |
| 2026-06-16 23:20 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $2 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:20 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $52 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:20 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.850 | 0.780 | +0.070 | $976 | 651m |
| 2026-06-16 23:19 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.820 | 0.780 | +0.040 | $8 | 574m |
| 2026-06-16 23:18 | 0x7e80049e… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN20
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-19-20260615191216217 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? |
BUY | 0.820 | 0.780 | +0.040 | $38 | 574m |
| 2026-06-16 23:16 | 0xa6b7ebd5… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $4 | — |
| 2026-06-16 23:14 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.710 | -0.050 | $13 | 438m |
| 2026-06-16 23:11 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.390 | 0.290 | +0.100 | $5 | 583m |
| 2026-06-16 22:57 | 0x30db2d6f… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.420 | 0.300 | +0.120 | $546 | — |
| 2026-06-16 22:53 | 0xced2fb16… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.445 | 0.300 | +0.145 | $64 | — |
| 2026-06-16 22:52 | 0xced2fb16… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.300 | +0.130 | $22 | — |
| 2026-06-16 22:39 | 0xc722c1a1… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.660 | 0.710 | -0.050 | $1 | 475m |
| 2026-06-16 22:33 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $105 | 1248m |
| 2026-06-16 22:32 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.410 | 0.290 | +0.120 | $2 | 620m |
| 2026-06-16 22:32 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.410 | 0.290 | +0.120 | $26 | 620m |
| 2026-06-16 22:32 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $6 | 620m |
| 2026-06-16 22:31 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.430 | 0.290 | +0.140 | $8 | 620m |
| 2026-06-16 22:30 | 0x95074f70… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUL01
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-30-20260615191216221 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? |
BUY | 0.951 | 0.880 | +0.071 | $48 | 1037m |
| 2026-06-16 22:30 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $100 | 1248m |
| 2026-06-16 22:28 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $5 | 1248m |
| 2026-06-16 22:27 | 0xb40e8967… | L1 |
KXUSIRANMOU-27JAN01-26JUN19
will-the-text-of-the-us-iran-agreement-be-released-by-june-17-20260615191216216 Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? |
BUY | 0.410 | 0.290 | +0.120 | $20 | 620m |
| 2026-06-16 22:26 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $1 | 1257m |
| 2026-06-16 22:26 | 0xa4bc3bbd… | L1 |
KXFABLERESTORE-27-26JUL01
will-claude-fable-5-be-restored-for-us-customers-by-july-1-20260613193829179-129-881-748-432-345 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.670 | -0.320 | $35 | 1257m |
| 2026-06-16 22:22 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.320 | 0.280 | +0.040 | $43 | 263m |