Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 08:03 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.150 | 0.210 | -0.060 | $8 | 1m |
| 2026-06-12 00:34 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.200 | -0.060 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-11 22:33 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.196 | -0.056 | $12 | 102m |
| 2026-06-11 22:32 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.196 | -0.056 | $3 | 129m |
| 2026-06-11 22:30 | 0x21064fd3… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.196 | -0.056 | $1 | 129m |
| 2026-06-11 17:34 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.040 | 0.077 | -0.037 | $190 | 1m |
| 2026-06-11 17:34 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.040 | 0.077 | -0.037 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-11 08:10 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.185 | -0.045 | $22 | 32m |
| 2026-06-11 08:06 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.185 | -0.045 | $34 | 32m |
| 2026-06-11 08:02 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.140 | 0.185 | -0.045 | $11 | 32m |
| 2026-06-11 01:33 | 0x1d5ce0a2… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $470 | 261m |
| 2026-06-10 20:39 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026 Will US annex any territory in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.130 | -0.040 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-10 20:39 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026 Will US annex any territory in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.130 | -0.040 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-10 20:39 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
will-us-annex-any-territory-in-2026 Will US annex any territory in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.130 | -0.040 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-10 14:07 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $18 | 1m |
| 2026-06-10 09:03 | 0x9def9524… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.170 | 0.140 | +0.030 | $207 | 112m |
| 2026-06-10 07:24 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.184 | -0.054 | $64 | 1313m |
| 2026-06-10 05:51 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.170 | -0.040 | $10 | 1413m |
| 2026-06-10 04:07 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-10 03:40 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $14 | 1m |
| 2026-06-10 03:03 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-10 00:51 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-06-10 00:49 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 23:50 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 13:17 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 12:47 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $342 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 09:30 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 09:25 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 08:55 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $62 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 08:28 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $21 | 1612m |
| 2026-06-09 08:28 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.189 | 0.150 | +0.039 | $22 | 2014m |
| 2026-06-09 08:27 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $4 | 1612m |
| 2026-06-09 08:27 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.190 | 0.150 | +0.040 | $3 | 2014m |
| 2026-06-09 08:27 | 0x17ed7dbf… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.180 | 0.150 | +0.030 | $23 | 1612m |
| 2026-06-09 06:06 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.154 | -0.034 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 06:06 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.154 | -0.034 | $61 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 06:06 | 0x7bbf09fc… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.154 | -0.034 | $6 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 04:41 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.154 | -0.034 | $20 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 04:40 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.130 | -0.040 | $2 | 17m |
| 2026-06-09 04:35 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 02:55 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 01:58 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.152 | -0.032 | $6 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 01:56 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $100 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 01:21 | 0x70d94a4f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.152 | -0.032 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-06-09 00:09 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $40 | 1m |
| 2026-06-08 20:24 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-08 20:11 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-06-08 20:10 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.120 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-06-08 18:48 | 0xf769c639… | L1 |
KXMUSKTRILLION-27
elon-musk-trillionaire-before-2027 Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? |
BUY | 0.951 | 0.920 | +0.031 | $11 | 1223m |
| 2026-06-08 18:39 | 0xa58d4f27… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-VPUTRUS
putin-out-before-2027 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.130 | -0.040 | $1 | 1m |