Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 16:28 | 0xa3ee2ddf… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.750 | 0.560 | +0.190 | $300 | 2676m |
| 2026-05-31 16:26 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31 US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.490 | 0.280 | +0.210 | $59 | 2704m |
| 2026-05-31 16:00 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.510 | 0.400 | +0.110 | $1003 | — |
| 2026-05-31 15:43 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.510 | 0.400 | +0.110 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-31 15:31 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.510 | 0.400 | +0.110 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-31 15:14 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.750 | 0.550 | +0.200 | $105 | 2765m |
| 2026-05-31 15:14 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31 US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.520 | 0.290 | +0.230 | $218 | 2765m |
| 2026-05-31 15:14 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.550 | +0.190 | $161 | 2765m |
| 2026-05-31 14:57 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.500 | 0.400 | +0.100 | $47 | — |
| 2026-05-31 14:57 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.500 | 0.400 | +0.100 | $39 | — |
| 2026-05-31 14:55 | 0xcfb50222… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.610 | 0.350 | +0.260 | $2 | 1m |
| 2026-05-31 14:55 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.380 | 0.350 | +0.030 | $3 | 1m |
| 2026-05-31 14:54 | 0xcfb50222… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.350 | +0.250 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-31 14:32 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.500 | 0.400 | +0.100 | $161 | — |
| 2026-05-31 14:31 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.250 | +0.320 | $430 | 117m |
| 2026-05-31 14:04 | 0xd5d75539… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.250 | +0.330 | $10 | 149m |
| 2026-05-31 13:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.250 | +0.340 | $1 | 167m |
| 2026-05-31 13:00 | 0xd52b8dcb… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.470 | 0.400 | +0.070 | $446 | — |
| 2026-05-31 12:52 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.250 | +0.320 | $506 | 218m |
| 2026-05-31 12:47 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $200 | 227m |
| 2026-05-31 12:47 | 0xd52b8dcb… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.470 | 0.400 | +0.070 | $24 | — |
| 2026-05-31 12:13 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.550 | +0.190 | $11 | — |
| 2026-05-31 12:13 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.550 | +0.190 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-31 12:13 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.740 | 0.550 | +0.190 | $355 | — |
| 2026-05-31 12:07 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $3 | 264m |
| 2026-05-31 12:07 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $3 | 264m |
| 2026-05-31 12:06 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $1167 | 264m |
| 2026-05-31 12:06 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.250 | +0.380 | $695 | 264m |
| 2026-05-31 11:56 | 0xd6d3ac4e… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.250 | +0.380 | $14 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:55 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.320 | 0.250 | +0.070 | $51 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:55 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $93 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:53 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $12 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:53 | 0xd6d3ac4e… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.250 | +0.380 | $20 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:52 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $134 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:52 | 0xd6d3ac4e… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.250 | +0.380 | $11 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:52 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $75 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:52 | 0xd6d3ac4e… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.250 | +0.380 | $26 | 273m |
| 2026-05-31 11:51 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.270 | 0.550 | -0.280 | $60 | — |
| 2026-05-31 11:51 | 0x8a98109f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
BUY | 0.730 | 0.550 | +0.180 | $311 | — |
| 2026-05-31 11:46 | 0x614dc8d3… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.620 | 0.250 | +0.370 | $173 | 283m |
| 2026-05-31 11:33 | 0xd52b8dcb… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.490 | 0.400 | +0.090 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-31 11:32 | 0xd52b8dcb… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.490 | 0.400 | +0.090 | $488 | — |
| 2026-05-31 11:31 | 0xd52b8dcb… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.490 | 0.400 | +0.090 | $440 | — |
| 2026-05-31 11:13 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.300 | 0.250 | +0.050 | $52 | 314m |
| 2026-05-31 11:06 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.490 | 0.390 | +0.100 | $58 | — |
| 2026-05-31 11:05 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.570 | 0.250 | +0.320 | $280 | 324m |
| 2026-05-31 11:04 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.490 | 0.390 | +0.100 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-31 11:04 | 0x2b9dd0a3… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? |
BUY | 0.490 | 0.390 | +0.100 | $520 | — |
| 2026-05-31 11:03 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.280 | 0.250 | +0.030 | $22 | 324m |
| 2026-05-31 11:01 | 0xac4a1fab… | L1 |
KXSULYOKOUT-26MAY-JUL01
tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.330 | 0.250 | +0.080 | $27 | 324m |