Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 21:42 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.500 | -0.090 | $82 | — |
| 2026-08-06 21:22 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $1399 | — |
| 2026-08-06 19:59 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $1033 | — |
| 2026-08-06 19:59 | 0x22dbd51e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $246 | — |
| 2026-08-06 19:12 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $20 | — |
| 2026-08-06 18:15 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $69 | — |
| 2026-08-06 17:54 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $9 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 17:35 | 0xee5457ad… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.370 | -0.050 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-06 17:07 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.110 | -0.030 | $11 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 17:07 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.110 | -0.030 | $2 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 17:04 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $17 | — |
| 2026-08-06 16:50 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $8 | — |
| 2026-08-06 16:48 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.112 | -0.032 | $2 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 16:44 | 0xe23b2940… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-LJMKOR
lee-jae-myung-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2026 Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.150 | -0.060 | $1 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 16:36 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.112 | -0.032 | $11 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 16:33 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.112 | -0.032 | $13 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 16:27 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-06 16:19 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $8 | — |
| 2026-08-06 16:19 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $3 | — |
| 2026-08-06 16:18 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.510 | -0.100 | $205 | — |
| 2026-08-06 16:05 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.500 | -0.090 | $95 | — |
| 2026-08-06 14:20 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXARREST-27JAN-AFAU
will-anthony-fauci-be-arrested-before-2027-464 Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.210 | -0.080 | $13 | — |
| 2026-08-06 14:18 | 0xe5f51861… | L1 |
KXARREST-27JAN-AFAU
will-anthony-fauci-be-arrested-before-2027-464 Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? |
SELL | 0.114 | 0.210 | -0.096 | $48 | — |
| 2026-08-06 13:34 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.500 | -0.100 | $800 | — |
| 2026-08-06 13:34 | 0x09789b8b… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.500 | -0.100 | $400 | — |
| 2026-08-06 13:34 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.500 | -0.100 | $301 | — |
| 2026-08-06 13:19 | 0xe5f51861… | L1 |
KXARREST-27JAN-AFAU
will-anthony-fauci-be-arrested-before-2027-464 Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? |
SELL | 0.117 | 0.210 | -0.093 | $50 | — |
| 2026-08-06 13:08 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.115 | -0.035 | $11 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 13:05 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.115 | -0.035 | $40 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 13:04 | 0x13fa4ce1… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.115 | -0.035 | $3 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 13:00 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.590 | -0.200 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-06 12:49 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.500 | -0.100 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-06 12:39 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.500 | -0.100 | $74 | — |
| 2026-08-06 12:31 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.510 | -0.110 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-06 12:15 | 0xa91edaba… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.510 | -0.120 | $359 | — |
| 2026-08-06 12:08 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.510 | -0.110 | $146 | — |
| 2026-08-06 11:49 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.520 | -0.130 | $350 | — |
| 2026-08-06 11:49 | 0xc8ab97a9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.520 | -0.130 | $780 | — |
| 2026-08-06 11:49 | 0xa91edaba… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.520 | -0.130 | $444 | — |
| 2026-08-06 11:49 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.520 | -0.130 | $1985 | — |
| 2026-08-06 11:18 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $60 | — |
| 2026-08-06 11:01 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $2 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 11:01 | 0x1ec6d955… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.460 | -0.030 | $2 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 10:58 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.590 | -0.200 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:50 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.123 | -0.033 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:38 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.124 | -0.034 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:06 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $15 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:06 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:05 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.123 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:01 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.123 | -0.033 | $2 | — |