Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 02:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 02:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 01:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.072 | 0.110 | -0.038 | $1 | 2m |
| 2026-05-24 01:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.071 | 0.110 | -0.039 | $13 | 22m |
| 2026-05-24 00:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.071 | 0.110 | -0.039 | $1 | 27m |
| 2026-05-24 00:27 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.130 | 0.097 | +0.033 | $6 | 22m |
| 2026-05-24 00:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.071 | 0.110 | -0.039 | $0 | 57m |
| 2026-05-24 00:27 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.130 | 0.097 | +0.033 | $1 | 22m |
| 2026-05-23 18:38 | 0x4a2be7a7… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.147 | 0.096 | +0.051 | $1470 | 368m |
| 2026-05-23 15:40 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.171 | 0.140 | +0.031 | $1 | 976m |
| 2026-05-23 15:40 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.172 | 0.140 | +0.032 | $1 | 976m |
| 2026-05-23 15:40 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.172 | 0.140 | +0.032 | $1 | 976m |
| 2026-05-23 15:36 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.177 | 0.140 | +0.037 | $11 | 976m |
| 2026-05-23 15:26 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.185 | 0.150 | +0.035 | $11 | 976m |
| 2026-05-23 15:15 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.203 | 0.160 | +0.043 | $11 | 987m |
| 2026-05-23 15:14 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.203 | 0.160 | +0.043 | $2 | 987m |
| 2026-05-23 15:12 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.200 | 0.160 | +0.040 | $1 | 987m |
| 2026-05-23 14:51 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.188 | 0.150 | +0.038 | $11 | 1023m |
| 2026-05-23 14:51 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.189 | 0.150 | +0.039 | $4 | 1023m |
| 2026-05-23 14:48 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.192 | 0.150 | +0.042 | $12 | 1023m |
| 2026-05-23 14:48 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.192 | 0.150 | +0.042 | $12 | 1023m |
| 2026-05-23 14:45 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260601
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may |
BUY | 0.192 | 0.150 | +0.042 | $1 | 1023m |
| 2026-05-23 14:35 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.660 | -0.280 | $17 | — |
| 2026-05-23 13:22 | 0xc02147de… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.710 | 0.310 | +0.400 | $19 | — |
| 2026-05-23 13:22 | 0xc02147de… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.710 | 0.310 | +0.400 | $691 | — |
| 2026-05-23 01:59 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $0 | 563m |
| 2026-05-23 01:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $0 | 599m |
| 2026-05-23 01:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $0 | 605m |
| 2026-05-23 00:44 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $1 | 640m |
| 2026-05-23 00:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $1 | 646m |
| 2026-05-23 00:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $1 | 652m |
| 2026-05-23 00:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $1 | 682m |
| 2026-05-23 00:02 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $0 | 682m |
| 2026-05-22 23:46 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXRECOGPALESTINE-27-GER
will-germany-recognize-palestine-before-2027 Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? |
SELL | 0.039 | 0.110 | -0.071 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-22 23:44 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $0 | 700m |
| 2026-05-22 23:19 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $3 | 724m |
| 2026-05-22 23:19 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $0 | 724m |
| 2026-05-22 23:15 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $1 | 730m |
| 2026-05-22 23:14 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $6 | 730m |
| 2026-05-22 14:46 | 0xbd14da50… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.630 | -0.300 | $38 | — |
| 2026-05-22 07:55 | 0xc602e347… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.296 | 0.690 | -0.394 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-21 13:52 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.310 | 0.650 | -0.340 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-21 13:16 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.310 | 0.650 | -0.340 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-21 13:09 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.310 | 0.650 | -0.340 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-21 12:50 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.303 | 0.699 | -0.396 | $61 | — |
| 2026-05-21 12:14 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.320 | 0.650 | -0.330 | $9 | — |
| 2026-05-20 22:01 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.695 | -0.390 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 21:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.696 | -0.391 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-20 20:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.696 | -0.391 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-20 20:18 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.694 | -0.389 | $1 | — |