Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 18:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:42 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.657 | -0.318 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:23 | 0x6f679c4a… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.360 | 0.260 | +0.100 | $130 | — |
| 2026-05-24 18:14 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $0 | 3m |
| 2026-05-24 17:14 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $1 | 62m |
| 2026-05-24 16:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.658 | -0.319 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 16:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.658 | -0.319 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-24 16:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $0 | 136m |
| 2026-05-24 15:56 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $0 | 142m |
| 2026-05-24 15:43 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.339 | 0.658 | -0.319 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 15:33 | 0xc03fd7f5… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.350 | 0.650 | -0.300 | $35 | — |
| 2026-05-24 15:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.067 | 0.100 | -0.033 | $0 | 171m |
| 2026-05-24 15:07 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXLEADERSOUT-27JAN01-MDIACPC
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682 |
SELL | 0.310 | 0.650 | -0.340 | $11 | — |
| 2026-05-24 10:24 | 0x014c4e7a… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.353 | 0.644 | -0.291 | $349 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:57 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-898-927 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
SELL | 0.100 | 0.130 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.352 | 0.645 | -0.293 | $61 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.352 | 0.645 | -0.293 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.352 | 0.645 | -0.293 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-898-927 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
SELL | 0.100 | 0.130 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:36 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.352 | 0.646 | -0.294 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:15 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.351 | 0.646 | -0.295 | $70 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:15 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.346 | 0.646 | -0.300 | $69 | — |
| 2026-05-24 08:13 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:06 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 08:06 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIVISITA-27JAN01
will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-898-927 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
SELL | 0.100 | 0.130 | -0.030 | $5 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:10 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.348 | 0.640 | -0.292 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-24 07:08 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 07:04 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.348 | 0.640 | -0.292 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-24 06:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:16 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:08 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 06:05 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 05:42 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.319 | 0.640 | -0.321 | $56 | — |
| 2026-05-24 05:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.319 | 0.640 | -0.321 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-24 04:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 04:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.319 | 0.640 | -0.321 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-24 04:20 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 03:20 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 03:07 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 02:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.069 | 0.100 | -0.031 | $8 | 944m |
| 2026-05-24 02:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 02:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $0 | 1m |
| 2026-05-24 02:24 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH
will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026 |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.100 | -0.030 | $1 | 1m |