Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 07:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.300 | +0.390 | $48 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.300 | +0.390 | $25 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.300 | +0.390 | $41 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.657 | -0.352 | $59 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.300 | +0.390 | $77 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.700 | 0.300 | +0.400 | $46 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.700 | 0.300 | +0.400 | $103 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:22 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.700 | 0.300 | +0.400 | $38 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:08 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.290 | +0.400 | $43 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.290 | +0.400 | $19 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:00 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.290 | +0.400 | $12 | — |
| 2026-05-19 07:00 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.300 | +0.390 | $69 | — |
| 2026-05-19 06:56 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.690 | 0.300 | +0.390 | $11 | — |
| 2026-05-19 05:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.655 | -0.350 | $45 | — |
| 2026-05-19 05:11 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.655 | -0.350 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-19 05:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.655 | -0.350 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-19 05:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.655 | -0.350 | $34 | — |
| 2026-05-19 05:08 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.655 | -0.350 | $59 | — |
| 2026-05-19 04:11 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.657 | -0.352 | $48 | — |
| 2026-05-19 04:10 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.657 | -0.352 | $59 | — |
| 2026-05-19 04:10 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.657 | -0.352 | $59 | — |
| 2026-05-19 04:10 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.305 | 0.657 | -0.352 | $59 | — |
| 2026-05-19 04:10 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $333 | — |
| 2026-05-19 03:55 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $21 | — |
| 2026-05-19 02:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.307 | 0.657 | -0.350 | $17 | — |
| 2026-05-18 21:50 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.307 | 0.658 | -0.351 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 21:38 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.307 | 0.660 | -0.353 | $26 | — |
| 2026-05-18 21:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.307 | 0.660 | -0.353 | $25 | — |
| 2026-05-18 21:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.307 | 0.660 | -0.353 | $61 | — |
| 2026-05-18 21:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 21:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $9 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:58 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:57 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $14 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:46 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $156 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $65 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.311 | 0.659 | -0.348 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.311 | 0.659 | -0.348 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.320 | +0.330 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:23 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.311 | 0.659 | -0.348 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:13 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.313 | 0.659 | -0.346 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 20:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:57 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:53 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:52 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:49 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.650 | 0.310 | +0.340 | $47 | — |
| 2026-05-18 19:05 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.260 | +0.400 | $25 | 5594m |
| 2026-05-18 19:04 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.260 | +0.400 | $34 | 5594m |
| 2026-05-18 18:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $4 | — |