Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 18:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 18:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 18:23 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 18:12 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.659 | -0.342 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 16:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.653 | -0.335 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 16:11 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.645 | -0.327 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.652 | -0.334 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.652 | -0.334 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.652 | -0.334 | $32 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:26 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.652 | -0.334 | $3 | — |
| 2026-05-18 15:25 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.317 | 0.652 | -0.335 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 14:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.316 | 0.643 | -0.327 | $32 | — |
| 2026-05-18 14:23 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.316 | 0.643 | -0.327 | $32 | — |
| 2026-05-18 14:17 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.316 | 0.643 | -0.327 | $32 | — |
| 2026-05-18 14:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.316 | 0.648 | -0.332 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 13:21 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.315 | 0.652 | -0.337 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 12:26 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $231 | — |
| 2026-05-18 11:19 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:53 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.310 | +0.350 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.160 | -0.090 | $10 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.160 | -0.090 | $4 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
SELL | 0.130 | 0.160 | -0.030 | $26 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.070 | 0.037 | +0.033 | $46 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.080 | 0.037 | +0.043 | $64 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.110 | 0.060 | +0.050 | $88 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.130 | 0.060 | +0.070 | $34 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.220 | 0.160 | +0.060 | $9 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.250 | 0.160 | +0.090 | $15 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0x9cb35555… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.250 | 0.160 | +0.090 | $15 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0x7207afc0… | L2 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.304 | 0.160 | +0.144 | $7815 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:29 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXMUSKOAI-26
will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-sam-altman |
BUY | 0.240 | 0.160 | +0.080 | $9 | 1m |
| 2026-05-18 10:22 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.659 | -0.358 | $15 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:13 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.659 | -0.358 | $5 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:09 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.659 | -0.358 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:08 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $43 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:08 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 10:03 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 09:51 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 08:45 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.659 | -0.358 | $10 | — |
| 2026-05-18 08:35 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.659 | -0.358 | $30 | — |
| 2026-05-18 08:20 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.659 | -0.358 | $4 | — |
| 2026-05-18 08:04 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.659 | -0.358 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:37 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.360 | +0.270 | $63 | 8653m |
| 2026-05-18 07:34 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.301 | 0.660 | -0.359 | $2 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:33 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.360 | +0.270 | $99 | 8659m |
| 2026-05-18 07:30 | 0xde0463ea… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.640 | 0.360 | +0.280 | $65 | 8665m |
| 2026-05-18 07:19 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.330 | +0.300 | $39 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:18 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.330 | +0.300 | $27 | — |
| 2026-05-18 07:15 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.630 | 0.330 | +0.300 | $1 | — |