Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 01:51 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.298 | 0.692 | -0.394 | $7 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.693 | -0.394 | $12 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.693 | -0.394 | $12 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.692 | -0.393 | $12 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.540 | -0.130 | $18 | 15343m |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.540 | -0.130 | $18 | 15337m |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.540 | -0.130 | $18 | 15332m |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.693 | -0.394 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.693 | -0.394 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:40 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.692 | -0.393 | $0 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.693 | -0.394 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.693 | -0.394 | $6 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.540 | -0.130 | $18 | 15343m |
| 2026-05-13 01:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.540 | -0.130 | $18 | 15337m |
| 2026-05-13 01:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.693 | -0.394 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:39 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.299 | 0.693 | -0.394 | $1 | — |
| 2026-05-13 01:18 | 0x7c3db723… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.540 | -0.050 | $248 | 6557m |
| 2026-05-13 01:18 | 0x7c3db723… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.540 | -0.050 | $248 | 6551m |
| 2026-05-13 01:18 | 0x7c3db723… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.490 | 0.540 | -0.050 | $248 | 6546m |
| 2026-05-13 00:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.667 | -0.349 | $64 | — |
| 2026-05-13 00:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.676 | -0.358 | $64 | — |
| 2026-05-13 00:41 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.318 | 0.675 | -0.357 | $64 | — |
| 2026-05-13 00:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.540 | -0.080 | $1 | 7833m |
| 2026-05-13 00:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.540 | -0.080 | $1 | 7827m |
| 2026-05-13 00:32 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027 |
SELL | 0.460 | 0.540 | -0.080 | $1 | 7822m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $9 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $194 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $135 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $9 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $194 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $135 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $9 | 6595m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $194 | 6595m |
| 2026-05-13 00:31 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $135 | 6595m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $31 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $31 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $31 | 6595m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $169 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $169 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:30 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $169 | 6595m |
| 2026-05-13 00:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $194 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:28 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $194 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $165 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $29 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0xa5e3044f… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $165 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $29 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $39 | 6611m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $39 | 6606m |
| 2026-05-13 00:27 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $39 | 6600m |
| 2026-05-13 00:14 | 0x1d5f88f1… | L1 |
KXLEAVESTARMER-26JUL01
starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548 |
BUY | 0.660 | 0.320 | +0.340 | $600 | 6622m |