Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 10:38 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.124 | -0.034 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:06 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $15 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:06 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:05 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.123 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 10:01 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.123 | -0.033 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:57 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $6 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:57 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.590 | -0.200 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:37 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.530 | -0.160 | $495 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:36 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.530 | -0.160 | $1980 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:35 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.127 | -0.037 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:28 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.590 | -0.210 | $8 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:19 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.127 | -0.037 | $1 | 146m |
| 2026-08-06 09:19 | 0x328dc4b8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $380 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:14 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.127 | -0.037 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 09:11 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.127 | -0.037 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-06 08:38 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.619 | 0.420 | +0.199 | $258 | — |
| 2026-08-06 08:34 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.600 | 0.420 | +0.180 | $75 | — |
| 2026-08-06 08:34 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $31 | — |
| 2026-08-06 08:26 | 0x71abe97b… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.540 | -0.160 | $190 | — |
| 2026-08-06 08:16 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.124 | -0.034 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 08:09 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.124 | -0.034 | $38 | — |
| 2026-08-06 07:40 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.440 | -0.030 | $32 | 191m |
| 2026-08-06 07:40 | 0x832bbb89… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.440 | -0.030 | $11 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 07:39 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.780 | -0.280 | $4 | — | |
| 2026-08-06 07:39 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.780 | -0.280 | $4 | — | |
| 2026-08-06 07:38 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.780 | -0.280 | $4 | — | |
| 2026-08-06 07:38 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.125 | -0.035 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 07:38 | 0x87287f64… | L1 |
KXCBDISRAEL-26AUG31-HOLD
will-the-bank-of-israel-hold-at-the-august-2026-meeting Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? |
0.500 | 0.780 | -0.280 | $4 | — | |
| 2026-08-06 07:21 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.125 | -0.035 | $10 | — |
| 2026-08-06 06:44 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.125 | -0.035 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-06 06:24 | 0x6f679c4a… | L1 |
KXARREST-27JAN-AFAU
will-anthony-fauci-be-arrested-before-2027-464 Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.160 | -0.040 | $47 | — |
| 2026-08-06 05:55 | 0x01309d49… | L1 |
GOVPARTYWI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-wisconsin-governor-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.410 | +0.180 | $300 | — |
| 2026-08-06 05:54 | 0x01309d49… | L1 |
GOVPARTYWI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-wisconsin-governor-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.580 | 0.410 | +0.170 | $59 | — |
| 2026-08-06 05:51 | 0x5188fa0e… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.750 | -0.310 | $660 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 05:36 | 0xffeafb3a… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.750 | -0.320 | $1 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 05:36 | 0x1ec6d955… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.750 | -0.320 | $1 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 05:35 | 0x5188fa0e… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.440 | 0.750 | -0.310 | $6 | 0m |
| 2026-08-06 05:29 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $19 | — |
| 2026-08-06 05:29 | 0xe5bd6db8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.530 | -0.160 | $74 | — |
| 2026-08-06 05:15 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.530 | -0.160 | $5386 | — |
| 2026-08-06 04:57 | 0xeca0c088… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $950 | — |
| 2026-08-06 04:37 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.123 | -0.033 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 04:03 | 0xabbf1484… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.090 | 0.122 | -0.032 | $2 | — |
| 2026-08-06 03:40 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-06 02:07 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-06 01:51 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.590 | -0.190 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-06 01:46 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $96 | — |
| 2026-08-06 01:11 | 0xd352f30e… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.530 | -0.150 | $1520 | — |
| 2026-08-06 01:10 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-06 00:57 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEMI-26-R
will-the-republicans-win-the-michigan-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.590 | 0.420 | +0.170 | $0 | — |