Each row is a detected lead-lag signal — a tracked wallet traded on Polymarket before Kalshi's price moved to match. Gap = how far Kalshi lagged at signal time. All times are Pacific Time (PT).
| Signal Time (PT) | Wallet | Layer | Market | Side | PM Price | K Price | Gap | Size | Catchup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 08:33 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.116 | -0.046 | $31 | — |
| 2026-08-04 08:30 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $1 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 08:06 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.115 | -0.035 | $5 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 07:42 | 0xdb976ec8… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.550 | -0.170 | $76 | — |
| 2026-08-04 07:35 | 0xa8c63f77… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.550 | -0.170 | $2342 | — |
| 2026-08-04 07:28 | 0xc3cd1d61… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
SELL | 0.330 | 0.640 | -0.310 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-04 07:28 | 0x3f4bab51… | L1 |
SENATEME-26-D
will-the-democrats-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
BUY | 0.670 | 0.640 | +0.030 | $13 | 2650m |
| 2026-08-04 07:22 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.450 | -0.040 | $36 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 07:05 | 0xfe41328c… | L1 |
KXTOPALBUMSPOTIFY-26-BTS
will-arirang-bts-be-the-top-spotify-album-for-2026 Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026? |
SELL | 0.120 | 0.150 | -0.030 | $1 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 06:59 | 0x3089e1a6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.550 | -0.170 | $164 | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:49 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.380 | 0.550 | -0.170 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:48 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.550 | -0.180 | $36 | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:35 | 0x4bf45919… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.550 | -0.160 | $390 | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:32 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.520 | -0.130 | $18 | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:25 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.520 | -0.120 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-04 06:24 | 0x7803ddf6… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.520 | -0.120 | $0 | — |
| 2026-08-04 05:16 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.118 | -0.038 | $44 | — |
| 2026-08-04 05:13 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.113 | -0.033 | $48 | — |
| 2026-08-04 05:08 | 0x81e930b9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.480 | -0.080 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-04 04:56 | 0x81e930b9… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.400 | 0.480 | -0.080 | $4 | — |
| 2026-08-04 04:54 | 0xca08d6c4… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.390 | 0.480 | -0.090 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-04 04:44 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.450 | -0.080 | $18 | 135m |
| 2026-08-04 04:42 | 0x511f9c77… | L1 |
KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26SEP17-H25
will-the-bank-of-japan-announce-a-25-bps-increase-at-the-september-2026-meeting-20260616223724870 Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? |
SELL | 0.370 | 0.450 | -0.080 | $20 | 149m |
| 2026-08-04 04:09 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.450 | -0.040 | $3 | 0m |
| 2026-08-04 04:03 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $1 | 146m |
| 2026-08-04 03:51 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.113 | -0.033 | $8 | 159m |
| 2026-08-04 03:20 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.115 | -0.035 | $20 | 184m |
| 2026-08-04 03:19 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.470 | -0.050 | $2014 | — |
| 2026-08-04 03:17 | 0xe2349595… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.420 | 0.470 | -0.050 | $86 | — |
| 2026-08-04 03:14 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.116 | -0.036 | $19 | 198m |
| 2026-08-04 03:10 | 0x45a22737… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.430 | 0.470 | -0.040 | $22 | — |
| 2026-08-04 02:39 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.113 | -0.033 | $5 | 224m |
| 2026-08-04 01:48 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.111 | -0.031 | $0 | 276m |
| 2026-08-03 23:26 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.123 | -0.043 | $0 | 10m |
| 2026-08-03 23:01 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.115 | -0.035 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 22:58 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 22:56 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.280 | 0.190 | +0.090 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-03 22:56 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 22:56 | 0xd8c18c73… | L1 |
KXFARAGEOUTREFORM-26JUL-JAN01
nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
BUY | 0.280 | 0.190 | +0.090 | $5 | — |
| 2026-08-03 22:46 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 22:41 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.117 | -0.037 | $32 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 22:34 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.117 | -0.037 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 22:19 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.124 | -0.044 | $0 | 13m |
| 2026-08-03 21:57 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.120 | -0.040 | $0 | 26m |
| 2026-08-03 21:18 | 0x21ffd2b7… | L1 |
KXGOOGLESEARCH-MOV27-ODY
will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-searched-movie-on-google-this-year-20260730181459216 Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.450 | -0.040 | $5 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 21:08 | 0xc5403a67… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.070 | 0.117 | -0.047 | $1 | — |
| 2026-08-03 21:08 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.117 | -0.037 | $0 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 20:11 | 0x4bf45919… | L1 |
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
SELL | 0.410 | 0.470 | -0.060 | $1105 | — |
| 2026-08-03 20:07 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.113 | -0.033 | $1 | 0m |
| 2026-08-03 19:59 | 0xf6eab31d… | L1 |
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
will-1-fed-rate-cut-happen-in-2026 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
SELL | 0.080 | 0.113 | -0.033 | $1 | 0m |